The just-concluded Assembly elections in five states had one particularly noteworthy characteristic, obvious even before the votes are counted: the high turnout. In four out of the five states having elections – Uttar Pradesh (UP), Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa – the proportion of registered voters who exercised their franchise was at an all-time high. The fifth state is Manipur; India’s north-east has always had a high turnout. Punjab registered a 77 per cent turnout, up from 70 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections of 2009. Goa had 81 per cent of its electorate trek to voting booths, a similar record. Uttarakhand saw 70 per cent; in 2009 it was just 54 per cent. In UP, women voters in particular came out in numbers not hitherto seen. Of course, this complicates the art of predicting results, always tricky; do more voters mean that, for example, the Bahujan Samaj Party’s core support is rallying round the incumbent government in UP? Or do the numbers imply the more conventional interpretation, that a higher turnout means that anger at the incumbent is greater?
While these are interesting questions that will be debated once the votes have been counted, the increased turnout itself should be seen as part of a trend across India’s elections in the past decade or so. The previous round of Assembly elections, in West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, had seen similar records set; Tamil Nadu saw 78 per cent and Kerala 75 per cent, for example. Bihar saw a near-10 per cent jump in the 2010 elections that returned Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to power. At one level, this is a comprehensive repudiation of the urban, elitist, anti-politics narrative being pushed by “anti-corruption” crusaders like Arvind Kejriwal and Kisan Baburao Hazare. Clearly, India’s voters, far from being disillusioned with electoral democracy, are more willing than ever to use their votes to effect change. However, simplistic narratives like that from the Election Commission – crediting its get-out-the-vote campaigns, which used local folk singers to create excitement – might also be missing the point. After all, it appears that there is something deeper and more sustained about this increase in turnout.
Several explanations could be brought forward. First, an increase in safety – these polls, in traditionally violence-prone states like Punjab and UP, were largely without incidents of intimidation and violence – encourages many, especially among the powerless, to exercise their voting rights. Second, the revision of the electoral rolls across the country has taken non-voters off, and brought more voters in, changing the denominators of the ratios mentioned earlier. However, the most powerful explanation might be the one offered by a group of MIT economists who conducted an experiment during the last Assembly elections in Delhi. They provided voters with newspapers that had printed “report cards” on their local legislators’ performance and qualifications. Access to those cards increased turnout significantly. It appears that the most robust explanation for the increased turnout is that voters, thanks to the work of the media and their own increasing literacy and access to information, think they are able to make better choices. This is a good omen for the continuing strength of India’s democracy.
