Last week, Lupin launched the generic version of Tricor, fenofibrate drug for cholesterol. Though Lupin has a branded fenofibrate product, named Antara, in the US market, the launch of the Tricor generic is important because the copycat drug can be launched in the same dosage/weight that the innovator company, Abbott, sells. Tricor is available in 48 mg and 145 mg and accounts for sales of $1.26 billion in the US. Other Indian players also have fenofibrate products in the market in different doses. Lupin has the permission to sell the generic version in these dosages. After the drug went off-patent in November last year, Teva was the first-to-file and launched the generic version of Tricor under the exclusivity arrangement with Abbott.
Analysts are excited about the launch of the generic version of this fenofibrate drug (copycat version of Tricor) because it has come ahead of schedule and currently there is limited competition in the US market for this product. While the innovator continues to manufacture the product, Teva and Lupin are the only two other players making the generic version of the drug. In due course of time, Valeant Pharmaceuticals International will also join the fray. Analysts expect the launch of Tricor to generate $50 million in revenues for Lupin over the next 12 months. Sharekhan expects $20 milliion in revenues in FY13 and another $75 million in FY14 from Tricor’s generic launch. Commenting on the launch, UBS Investment Research says: “Lupin may end up enjoying a little over a month of exclusivity before Valeant launches in January 2013. We expect Tricor to contribute 14 per cent of our FY13 EPS (Rs 3.82) for Lupin.” Analysts also say so far there is no other authorised generic player for this drug. Though there is no data available to prove this yet, observers say that despite the launch of generics, there has been very little price erosion in this drug.
The lack of competition spells good news for Lupin for sure, but competitive intensity may pick up in the next financial year, as players like Ranbaxy and Wockhardt have expressed their intentions to launch similar products. Despite the earlier-than-expected launch and the benefits that may accrue from it, analysts are not upgrading earnings estimates of Lupin either this year or next. Sharekhan, in fact, says the launch of the Tricor copycat may impact the sales of Lupin’s branded fenofibrate product, Antara, (available in 140 mg and 43 mg) in the US. Overall, the company’s product pipeline remains robust and is expected to launch several products in the lucrative US market.
