Manas Chakravarty: The weather next week*

WATCHWORD

(The knives are out for the Met Department. With its predictions of the monsoon being "hundred per cent of the long-run average" being woefully off the mark, critics have lost no time in pointing accusing fingers at the weathermen. The Department's bumbling efforts throughout last month to pretend that everything was fine, and that the rains were delayed by just a few days, have made them the butt of many jokes. More seriously, several drought-affected farmers in the north-west of the country have threatened to sue the Department, as have several flood-affected farmers in the north-east. Hence, after due consultation with legal experts, the Meteorological Department has drawn up a brand new format for its weather report, and the first such report is reproduced below.)

Weather report
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on the India Meteorological Department's current views, mispprehensions, assumptions, expectations, illusions, estimates and pro-

*Conditions apply
jections about the weather and the global environmental and climatic systems, and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to vary widely and erratically from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason of context, the words "may, will, should, expects, plans, intends, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts," and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements.

A forward-looking statement is subject to inherent risks and uncertainties that may be general or specific. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to a) general conditions, including in particular meteorological conditions in the global weather system, b) the general ficklenesss of the weather, c) the conditions prevailing over the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean, d) ignorance, e) sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific Ocean, chiefly the position of the El Nino weather phenomenon, f) faulty mathematical models dreamed up by our over-enthusiastic statisticians, g) the speed and intensity of the prevailing easterly winds, and h) goof-ups in our calculations.

This list is not exhaustive of the factors that may affect any of the Meteorological Department's forward-looking statements. These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers should not place undue reliance on the Department's forward-looking statements. Expressions of our opinion herein are subject to change without notice, depending on the weather.

Readers of our forecasts should consult their weather advisors/rainmakers/soothsayers/shamans/astrologers before following any recommendation, which may not always be suitable for their particular circumstances. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Readers of our weather forecasts are also informed that the word "average" is to be taken in the strict arithmetical sense. To take one example, if the East of the country receives 180 per cent of "normal" rain and the West receives 20 per cent, the average will be 100 per cent for the country as a whole. Or again, if rainfall in the first two months of the monsoon is 20 per cent of the normal and rainfall in the next two months is 180 per cent of the normal, the average for the season as a whole will be 100 per cent, or completely normal.

Important disclosures: This is to inform the general public that neither the India Meteorological Department nor any of its employees are in the business of buying and selling agricultural commodities or futures contracts that may be affected by predictions regarding the monsoon. We also hereby certify that some of our employees, sadly, hold shares of Hindustan Lever, the price of which may depend on the progress of the monsoon.

Disclaimer: Our reports contain statements of fact and opinion. Our meteorologists derive factual statements from sources which they believe are accurate, but neither they nor we represent that the facts presented are accurate or complete. While our meteorologists are all qualified personnel, many of them with Ph Ds in meteorology, that does not imply that some of them may not be sleeping on the job, keeping in view the fact that most Ph Ds in this country are those who couldn't get a job after graduating. It is also entirely possible that some of our forecasters may have wild imagination.

All the information and analysis provided in this weather forecast is for information and/or entertainment only. We will accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising directly or indirectly from the use of, or reliance on, any information contained in this weather forecast. The reader of this forecast is presumed, without prejudice, to have read the disclaimer and accepted its terms and conditions, whatever they may be.

Forecast: Subject to everything mentioned hereinabove, it may rain next week.

manas@business-standard.com