Many convergences

As Indians stroll down to the polling booths today in the first phase of the country's 14th general elections, many voters will wonder what exactly they are voting for.

Gone in at least some ways are the days when the BJP represented an exclusivist vision of India. Gone, too, are the days when the Congress represented clearly the inclusivist ethos. Its flirtations with soft Hindutva have taken their toll.

On economic issues, too, the ideological dividing line between the two main parties has become thin. Their manifestoes show the convergence. Is this a good thing or bad?

On the whole it is, at the very least, not bad. But if the blurring remained at the level of ideology alone, it could have been attributed to the maturing of the Indian political system. For, as democracies ripen, the main political groupings do tend to converge on the major issues "" as has been seen in the US, Britain and elsewhere.

So why worry? Because of the manner in which the parties have gone for what one prominent minister has called the "winnability" of a candidate.

The result is that principles have been sacrificed at the altar of perceived winnability. A Sajjan Kumar and a Jagdish Tytler, both widely believed to have had a role in the anti-Sikh riots of 1984, make Congress claims to being non-communal appear ludicrous.

The nomination of Ajit Jogi and Sukh Ram raise questions about the party's commitment to probity. The BJP even brought in a notorious gangster before better sense prevailed. The voter sees it all for being what it really is "" humbug and hot air to hide the real motives "" and wonders what he is voting for.

Then, this is beginning to resemble what is known as an Egyptian election "" the results are known beforehand. The NDA's return to power has been forecast by every opinion poll bar one. Can this extraordinary convergence be wrong?

That by itself is not a cause for concern. But, thanks to the fumbling and bumbling by the Congress, there is now the prospect of a weak Opposition. Just how weak it will be is not clear because the latest opinion polls suggest that the NDA may have lost some of its shine and may, in fact, get fewer seats than had been expected earlier.

Even so, had the Congress organised itself better, started building coalitions earlier, and been less mesmerised by Sonia Gandhi, the alliance led by her would have given the NDA a better run for its money. The BJP has a clear strategy and is superb at tactics, but the Congress has been lurching about like a man with two left feet, clumsy, confused and disoriented.

Democracies need stable governments but they also need strong oppositions in parliament. Without it, re-elected governments that have a decade-long run in office can become filled with hubris "" of which the early signs are already visible. In India, this can only mean even worse governance and more corruption and more high-handedness.

Finally, there is the role that the regional parties will play. Many are formally members of the two coalitions but some of the important ones, notably the SP and the BSP, are sitting on the fence, waiting to extract their pound of flesh if the NDA's majority is small or perhaps even absent.

Such parties, when they swoop in for the kill, lower the tone even further. Little wonder, then, that the average voter is slightly bemused. He will do his duty. But will the politicians do theirs?