Worries over likely subnormal monsoon and its impact on agriculture, economy and inflation have intensified after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) lowered its estimate of anticipated rainfall during the season to 93 per cent of the long-period average from the 95 per cent projected in April. More disquieting is the IMD's prognosis that the country's key north-western bread bowl of Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan is headed for a drought with a likely shortfall in rain of around 15 per cent. Most other parts of the country, including many agriculturally important regions in south and central India, too, may face rainfall deficit of six to seven per cent. Notably, it has been forecast that the critical months of June and July - the main sowing season - will see the worst phase of the monsoon before some improvement can be expected in August.
Such a skewed spread of rainfall calls for special strategies and expeditious action to organise input supplies and make other administrative arrangements to implement them. The agriculture ministry has, therefore, done well to announce a comprehensive blueprint of what it intends to do to counter the monsoon's under-performance. Many of the measures mooted by it aim at providing relief to affected farmers. Subsidies on diesel as well as seeds and interest subvention on crop loans are significant among them. Greater emphasis, however, should be laid on mitigating the impact of inadequate moisture on crops to minimise production loss. This will essentially need changes in the cropping pattern and input use, apart from rainwater conservation. In areas where sowing may get delayed owing to inadequate moisture, farmers will need seeds of quicker-maturing crop varieties that can perform well despite belated planting. Seeds of such location-specific varieties should be sourced immediately and kept handy at strategic places. Farmers may also need to be advised to readjust the doses and schedules of fertiliser application. Measures like rescheduling the release of canal water, regulating groundwater extraction and ensuring in situ and on-farm conservation and storage of available rainwater for life-saving irrigation are critical to stave off crop damage due to erratic rains or prolonged dry spells.
Fortunately, there are a few redeeming factors that may help cope with the looming contingency. For one, most reservoirs, barring some in the south, hold comfortable water stocks. The total storage in the 85 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission is estimated to be about 26 per cent higher than last year's levels and 42 per cent above the past 10-year average. This should prove useful in maintaining the flow of water in irrigation canals and producing hydropower to run industries and meet household demand. Besides, the availability of enough foodgrain stocks - 20.6 million tonnes of rice and 41.5 million tonnes of wheat - can help keep the prices of staple food items in check. However, the same cannot be said about vegetables, fruit, milk, eggs and meat, which have been the main contributors to the high food inflation, which is hovering at around nine per cent. Imports of pulses and edible oils, too, may need to be stepped up to avert any spike in their prices. Thus, on the whole, the possible fallout of inadequate monsoon rainfall may be intimidating but it is not unmanageable. However, it will put the managerial ability of the new Narendra Modi government to its first major test.
