On October 15th, of this year, the Myanmar government signed a ceasefire agreement with 8 armed ethnic groups, bringing a temporary respite to insurgencies on its borders. The agreement was noteworthy for the fact that it brought to the table members of the Karen National Union (KNU), one of the bigger armed ethnic groups bordering Thailand. The KNU was a rebel army that came together around the time of the country’s independence in 1948 and holds the distinction of fighting the world’s longest running insurgency. This agreement, with KNU and seven other groups bordering Thailand, though limited in reach and content, came at an opportune time for the Thein Sein led USDP government. With national elections around the corner, the ruling party is perfectly situated to use this agreement to their advantage.
Myanmar’s violent political history and unique geography have served as a theatre for various insurgent movements. The country today has been formally divided into seven ethnic states that run along its borders and seven divisions that form the central plains. The predominantly Buddhist Bamar group, live in the central regions, and dominate and occupy critical positions in the government, and the military. The violence between the ethnic states and the central government for the past 6 decades is fueled by both religious discrimination by the Buddhists against other religious minorities, and political domination by the Bamar group.
The ethnic violence also owes its resurgence to the 1962 coup and subsequent rewriting of the 1948 constitution. The 1948 constitution, had proposed the creation of a federal system with each ethnic nation being in control of their resources, and land. It also accorded equal rights to all citizens, and recognized all religious minorities. The constitution also gave the ethnic nations an option to secede after 10 years. This was backed by the Pangalong agreement that Suu Kyi’s father, Aung San signed with the Shan, Kachin and Chin groups in February1947. The assassination of Aung San in July, 1947, the 1962 coup, the rise of the SLORC and the many revisions to the constitution put to rest ideas of such a federal system.
Myanmar today struggles with insurgencies and incursions on all of its borders. It’s northern and north eastern border with China, remains it’s most turbulent, restive and militarized. The enormous influx of arms, money from illegal trading of natural resources, and indirect political interference from China have created a miasma of violence in the area. Thailand, its eastern and south eastern neighbor has been struggling to accommodate the flood of refugees from Myanmar fleeing conflict, poverty and government sanctioned violence. The region is part of the notorious golden triangle, a veritable smorgasbord of drugs, arms, traffickers and illegally smuggled goods. The presence of drug lords, the carving of fiefdoms by the local Myanmarese military commanders for the exploitation of local natural resources for their personal enrichment have made these areas hard to govern or control.
The border with India abuts Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram. This border area is home to ethnic communities who straddle regions in both countries, taking advantage of lax border security to move back and forth every day. There have been efforts to seal the border without much success. Large scale smuggling and influx of people and arms, and notably insurgents supported by other neighboring countries has resulted in making this border area a source of concern for India.
It is vital for both Myanmar and India that the borders don’t become a conduit for kindling violence in the region. In this context, it is essential for India to further the relationship with Myanmar and ensure that the incoming government is able to, and does everything in its power to control its border and assert itself politically. India’s ‘Act East’ initiative has given a new lease of life to trade agreements, cross border transport, and connectivity to the rest of south east Asia through Myanmar. Economic growth in India’s north east and in Myanmar can serve as an effective panacea to some of the problems troubling the region.
The biggest challenge for the incoming president of Myanmar would be to unite these disparate and warring ethnic groups into one country. The current ceasefire agreement, and the various other bilateral agreements need to be used as a starting point to earn the trust of these groups and create a new constitution that would result in a federal republic. The incoming government must take every necessary step to ensure that these groups are not given a reason to turn to neighboring countries for political or military support. The ceasefire agreements and the multitude of ethnic parties fighting the election need to be taken as a positive sign that Myanmar is ready to embrace a new kind of democracy.
This is the second in a three part series on Myanmar’s elections. The first part can be read here
Priya Ravichandran is an alumni of the Takshashila Institution. She blogs at Aequalis on the Indian National Interest platform and is a frequent contributor to Pragati - The Indian National Interest review. She tweets as @binaryfootprint
