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Why did Narendra Modi suddenly hark back to October 31, 1984 when Mr Pranab Mukherjee was not made Prime Minister after Indira Gandhi was killed?
Narendra Modi’s recalling of the 1984 episode after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, when Mr Mukherjee, despite bring the No 2 in the Cabinet, was not made Prime Minister -- and then dropped from the Council of Ministers when the new government was formed by Rajiv Gandhi -- has to be seen in the context of the power that rests with the President when a general election return a split verdict.
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Mr Modi was reminding Mr Mukherjee that even if he had a clear preference for the Congress, that preference need not necessarily transfer to the family.
To understand Mr Modi’s play, the context is the formation of the Third Front (TF). It will comprise all those parties that are refusing to join either the NDA or the UPA before the election, to keep their options open until after it is over.
The reason why the TF has been formed is simple: all opinion polls suggest that between them the regional parties, both big and small, could get as many as 200 seats. They could then elect a leader and stake a claim with the President to form the next government.
For this they will need the support of the Congress as both wish to keep the BJP out. It is at this point that the President will have to decide. In that sense the next government may not reflect the wishes of the voter but of the President.
The problem is not a new one. Indeed, it was explicitly discussed by the Sarkaria Commission 24 years ago which had lain down a formula to deal with such a situation.
The Commission proposed a fair rule. It advised the President to first call the coalition that had been formed before the elections. If that didn’t work, he would have to call upon the coalition with the most seats formed after the election.
If even this failed, he would have to use his discretion to see which combination of parties had the most seats. The President's choice was subject to a floor test within a week. If even this failed, another general election would have to be held.
The likely outcome as of now is that the Congress and the BJP between them will get between 280-300 seats, the AIADMK and the TMC will get 65 seats, and the remaining approximately 190 seats will be won by the others.
Of these 190, around 25 each or 50 will go with the NDA and the UPA, leaving about 140 (like TDP, AGP, BJD, Jagan Reddy etc) to be snared by them.
