 "Christophe Jaffrelot")
Christophe Jaffrelot, research director at Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) in France and faculty of South Asian politics and history at Sciences Po (Paris), author of The Hindu Nationalist Movement and Indian Politics: 1925 to the 1990s; India's Silent Revolution, tells Kalpesh Damor & Vinay Umarji that none of the major parties in India is focusing on core issues in its election campaign. Edited excerpts:
What are your observations on the ongoing elections in the world's largest democracy?
For the moment, I have a feeling that the poll campaign is more about emotional issues, personal issues and personal attacks. There is not much on policies that will be pursued by the prime ministerial candidates if they win. This is very surprising because it is for the first time that the government is under so much attack for the failure of its economic policy - but you do not see any alternatives.
Opponents say that they want to improve the economy but how will they do that? They want to fight inflation. Fine, but how?
The same applies to infrastructure. They want to build 100 cities - but how will you do that? Where will the money come from - or are these cities private enterprises and for the rich only? No party is explaining anything - or nobody is asking anything. The media is not playing its role in this direction and I am sorry to say that. In any democracy, during elections there is a time when you ask the key questions - because after the elections, you're bound to have the same government for five years. But politicians are not pushed into policymaking scrutiny.
What is unique about these elections?
A few things are unique. A new party, which is only 18 months old, is in the fray and has made a strong impact, which is a significant, new feature. It is not every day that a new party comes up. The last time a new party made such an impact was when V P Singh founded the Jan Morcha just before the 1989 elections.
Another feature is that a chief minister may become the prime minister - that has not happened since H D Deve Gowda (all the others had been Union ministers).
And last but not least, for the first time, the Congress is led by someone who has little experience of governance. Except Rajiv Gandhi, all their prime ministers have been ministers before.
Do you think the campaigning in the ongoing elections is focused more on individuals than on core issues and policies?
They are not dealing with core issues. There are economic, energy, fiscal and environment policies to focus on. Water and air quality have become very important questions for India. None of the election manifestos have raised these issues. It is as if only institutions such as the Supreme Court are taking care of these vital issues. But in a democratic government, the court is not supposed to make policies, it is the political parties who have to propose schemes and the citizens who have to decide.
The parties are also focusing a lot on individuals. But it is largely because the electronic media has become an important image driver. And the electronic media people have hardly any time to put substance in their reporting. We have heard that this time elections are like the American elections.
The elections are American in terms of the amount of money involved and personalisation of the contest. But they are not American insofar as debates are concerned. In the US, you are waiting for the debates. Here, there's not been any debate between the main contenders.
Which party do you think has better prospects of forming the government after the elections?
Well, of course, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is ahead. But it remains to be seen whether the party will cross the magic figure of 272 seats. It's hard to believe because it means a huge leap forward. It is a rare feat for a party to double its seats in five years. There will probably be a coalition and then it will be a different game.
What role could regional parties play in the formation of the next government?
Regional parties could play a major role. If the National Democratic Alliance is short of a majority by 50 seats, then it will need to have at least two to three state parties on board. Then, the bargain begins. And when you are so much in demand, you can bargain on your own terms.
As many as 102 Lok Sabha constituencies have a Muslim population in excess of 20 per cent, yet the representation of Muslim members of Parliament (MPs) is very low. What is your view on Muslim participation and how can they impact the outcome of the polls?
They (Muslims) are losing ground. If you look at the Muslims in the Lok Sabha, they were nine per cent of the Lok Sabha in 1980 when they were 11 per cent of the total population. In 2009, they were 5.8 per cent of the total MPs when they were 14 per cent of the population. The gap has been widening. This means that the mainstream parties are reluctant to give tickets to Muslims. The parties that would do so are the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP) and, of course, the Aam Aadmi Party and Congress, but not as much as they did before. If you don't give a voice to everybody in Parliament, how can it be a representative body?
What are your views on the representation of Dalits in Indian politics?
Dalits will get the usual 15 per cent seats. And this time again, the BSP will do well in Uttar Pradesh (UP), not only because its core supporters are still behind the party, but also because Muslims may join them too, especially in west UP because of the Muzaffarnagar riots - many Muslims may turn their backs on the SP this time.
One of your publications is called "Indian Politics, 1925 to the 1990s". What changes have you seen in Indian politics post 1990 in general and after 2000 in particular?
Liberalisation has given rise to a middle class of a different kind. In a way, it is more politicised, partly because salaried people are more sensitive to corruption. But the middle class is very much after growth and the means to get that growth may not matter much to them - the concern for the environment seems to be low, for instance. Also, the middle class has little problem with rising inequalities. The social democratic Nehruvian project was intended to contain inequality. But that is not the regime the middle class would now favour. They now support economically liberal policies. This new middle class supports the BJP more than the Congress. First, because it wants to grow in status by being recognised as Hindu through a kind of sanskritisation process - and balance its growing materialism by some religiosity. Second, the BJP has always been anti-reservation and on the side of merit - a value the middle class adheres to.
Will the social media play a significant role in the elections this time?
It will, for the youth; for the 100 million people who will be voting for the first time. In my view, there is nothing like a "youth vote" in India - the urban youth and the rural youth form two different entities. In the December 2012 state elections in Gujarat, villages voted more for the Congress than BJP, be it the youth or the older population. If you are from a village, you might not vote for the BJP, which is a huge failure for the party.
