The group of tiny islands in the Indian Ocean known as the Maldives is about to round off a remarkable burst of neighbourhood diplomacy by the Manmohan Singh government. In the last few weeks, agreements with breakthrough potential have been signed with Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Maldives will now join that list. Even Pakistan could figure, if that wayward country decides finally to give India “most favoured nation” status for trade. There have been hiccups, of course. West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee caused one on the sharing of Teesta waters with Bangladesh. Still, the neighbourhood love-fest, if it can be called that, could turn out to be a more substantial diplomatic achievement than the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement of 2008.
While the new agreements have come in a rush, they are the culmination of years of quiet Indian diplomacy. Equally, the leaders of neighbouring countries have shown courage in breaking old boundaries. Baburam Bhattarai, Nepal’s prime minister, got a hot reception when he returned to Kathmandu after signing an investment guarantee pact with India; to his credit, he stood his ground, arguing that his priority was to attract Indian investment. Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh has been even more courageous in reaching out to India with a boldness that speaks of statesmanship. And Myanmar’s leaders have caused eyebrows to rise around the world by unilaterally scrapping a 6,000-MW hydel power project being built in that country by a Chinese company, with much of the power to have been sold to China. The Myanmar prime minister visited India shortly afterwards, and India hopes that bilateral relations will break new ground — including, possibly, a road that provides a land route to Thailand and the heart of Asean.
For India, all this marks a new phase after years of prickly behaviour by its smaller neighbours. Among the factors prompting a change of attitude is almost certainly the fact that India has become a more attractive market, after its economy has recorded sustained rapid growth. India has helped by becoming more willing to open up its market to neighbours. There is greater recognition all round of how much more can be gained from sharing in the prosperity than by sniping at India. But the breakthrough is not just economic. The agreement with Afghanistan provides for security cooperation on an enhanced scale, including the provision of equipment — signalling to all concerned that India intends to stay a player in Afghanistan, even after US withdrawal.
These are early days. Suspicions about India’s intentions constitute a running thread in Nepalese discourse, and it will be a long time before bilateral cooperation on river waters starts again, though Indo-Bhutan power projects provide a showcase of successful partnership (Bhutan will soon have the highest per capita income among all South Asian countries, simply by selling hydel electricity to India). Also uncertain are the reported plans to put a railway line from the Chabahar port in Iran all the way up to Afghanistan — useful for evacuating minerals that Indian companies hope to mine in Afghanistan. But for all the uncertainties and hiccups, South Asia could start looking like a zone of cooperation rather than of conflict.
