No clear winner

Sometimes, elections are not about who will win but who will lose. The Bihar assembly election of 2005 has been one such. The whole country was captivated by the thought of Lalu Prasad being voted out of power.

After 15 years, he and his wife had become national symbols of misrule and poor governance and, in that sense, the election was more a referendum on them.

Barring some huge misjudgment on the part of the Congress, which could try and cobble together a government in the name of secular parties, it now looks certain that Lalu's party, the RJD, will have to sit in the opposition benches.

If the purpose of elections is to give the people a chance to be rid of bad governments, this election would have served its purpose. But what next?

Given the way the cookie has crumbled in Bihar, it is hard to say who will form the next government, and so Indian democracy could be on test again.

The governor, Buta Singh, will have to be a transparently impartial referee. If he looks for a rule to go by, there is a precedent. In 1999 the then President, K R Narayanan, made it amply clear that the pre-poll alliance with the largest number of seats must be given the first chance at government formation.

At this point in time this looks like being the NDA, even though it will be short of the halfway mark. The balance is thus in the hands of the "others", of which Ram Vilas Paswan's party is the main component. For improving governance, the results therefore do not augur well. Bihar will continue to be cause for serious concern.

Two other states have had elections, Jharkhand and Haryana. In Jharkhand the results are a minor surprise because the incumbent BJP government looks sure to come back. In Haryana, too, things have turned out as expected, with Om Prakash Chautala being routed.

However, the Congress has as many as five contenders for the chief minister's post, including the old war horse Bhajan Lal. Victory too brings its own problems.

What will these results mean for power equations at the Centre? The BJP will have fresh wind in its sails and can be expected to get more assertive. Within the ruling UPA, the weakening of Lalu Prasad will be welcomed by most, as will the shot in the arm coming from Haryana.

Jharkhand is an election that the Congress may have lost through poor strategy, and the party must ask itself whether it should try to flex its muscles in places where it has no muscle.