Richard Holbrooke, the US special representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan, will be in South Asia next week. Despite Mr Holbrooke’s reputation for playing hardball and knocking heads together, no quick results should be expected from his engagement. If anything, Pakistan is pushing back the starting line in deliberately provocative ways — by releasing AQ Khan, the father of nuclear proliferation, by having “non-state” actors attack American convoys trucking supplies into Afghanistan, and by refusing to take action against those guilty of having launched the Mumbai attack two months ago. Public protests should be expected during Mr Holbrooke’s visit, from Pakistanis critical of US drone attacks on Pak soil. And an attempt will be made to draw in the Kashmir issue as the original sin, even as demands are made that India should reduce its profile and presence in Afghanistan. Some of this is to be expected, while others testify to the growing distance between Pakistan and the US.
Meanwhile, the situation on the Afghan side of the border is no easier. President Hamid Karzai’s days are apparently numbered because of his inability to exercise control over large parts of the country and build an effective administration, as also because of a failure to control widespread corruption and the narcotics trade. But there is no acceptable alternative in sight. The Afghan war has also got nastier and messier, even as US supply lines through Pakistan and through Central Asia face new difficulties. In short, if Mr Holbrooke wanted a challenging assignment that would keep him busy, he has got one.
The visiting diplomat will have realised already that the route to success in Afghanistan lies through Pakistan, and that nothing substantive can be achieved in the latter without talking to China. The core issue has now become the nature of the Pakistani state, the defining role of the army even when civilian rule has been established, and (despite the occasional crackdowns) the free rein enjoyed by jihadi elements in the country. If Mr Holbrooke’s job is therefore to be defined as doing some elements of nation-building in Pakistan, his task becomes even more difficult.
Pakistan has so far been adept at convincing the world that the only way it can be made to behave itself is if the rest of the world gives it all the carrots it wants. Perhaps the time has come to apply some stick as well—in the form of conditions attached to the financial life-support that the country needs. Even the army must realize that if it is to retain power and feed its own hunger for war machines and enjoy generous budgets for mischief-making all around, the country needs aid. The trouble so far has been that the aid (both military and financial) given to the country has been with few serious strings attached. Pakistan has taken money from the US to fight the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and then diverted it to other uses. Although a smaller part of the total budget goes to defence than used to be the case, the level of defence spending remains high.
India’s attitude to the Holbrooke mission should be supportive but clearminded. The regional narrative as India sees it has to be spelt out very clearly, and early in the day, so that someone else does not run away with the map.
