Are prime ministers Manmohan Singh and Nawaz Sharif going to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in late September? Is the India-Pakistan dialogue expected to get a big push with their meeting, or is the bilateral dialogue fated to be postponed till general elections are held in mid-2014?
No announcements are in yet for the Manmohan-Nawaz meeting, although speculation has been rife since the Pakistan prime minister’s special envoy Shahryar Khan came to Delhi to pay his respects a fortnight ago. Nawaz Sharif is likely to speak at the UNGA on September 24, after nearly 15 years. As for Manmohan Singh, last-minute flourishes are now being put in place for a visit to Washington DC to meet Obama, around September 26, probably his last as prime minister.
Meanwhile, US Vice-president Joe Biden is in Delhi in the coming week to tie up the details of that US visit. It would be perfect if Singh were to sail into Washington having had his photo-op with the prime minister of Pakistan, a man the Americans hope to do serious business with over the next year as they withdraw from Afghanistan.
This means, that at least on the foreign policy front, the prime minister has to move on both the US and Pakistani agendas at the same time. The PM is at least clear about the first, which is that he has to get the economic reform back on track so that US corporates feel they have at least a level-playing field in the Indian market. There is great heartburn in the US that the Indian economy is shut off for America, especially since government contracts are being given to the French (the 126 fighter aircraft deal worth at least $11 billion was won by Rafale and a civil nuclear power plant by Areva at Jaitapur in Maharashtra) and the Russians (four more nuclear reactors at Kudamkulam and another two at a still-undecided location since the Russians turned down the offer to build in Haripur in West Bengal).
That is also partly why there is such intense pressure to pass the insurance and pension bills during this monsoon session in parliament, although to be fair their passage is expected to streamline and open up these sectors at home. The decision to raise the FDI limit in insurance from 26 per cent to 49 per cent has already been taken and last week the Cabinet approved FDI in telecom and some defence areas to 100 per cent.The government hopes to take advantage of the BJP’s recent decision to not come in the way of passing the bill, especially since it has the JD(U) with its 20 MPs on board to ease the stress of doing so.
Meanwhile, there is some movement on the India-Pakistan front, although it continues to be very slow and steady. A team of Indian officials that recently visited Lahore to talk to Pakistan’s energy ministry on the possibility of reviving the sale of 500 MW of electricity from India’s Punjab to Pakistani Punjab was received with considerable hospitality and interest.
It is said that the Pakistani side, which has been bearing the brunt of public ire because the daily 18-hour loadshedding average has not come down since Nawaz Sharif won the elections in May, offered to connect the southern part of Lahore to the Indian electricity grid.
The Indian team is believed to have told its Pakistani interlocutors that it was not part of its mandate to discuss this offer, and it is more than likely that this discussion will now take place between Nawaz Sharif and Manmohan Singh when they meet in New York.
Clearly, Nawaz Sharif is gambling on the fact of rising public anger inside the country at the continuously deteriorating economic situation at home, which will allow him to offer out-of-the-box solutions, including from Pakistan’s traditional enemy, India.
Consider the breathtaking nature of the Pakistani suggestion : To connect the Punjab electricity grid to a town in Pakistan Punjab will be to reverse nearly seven decades of the most ridiculous animosity that has divided the two peoples. For the first time since 1947, the two grids will be joined together, if only very partially.
It is also the perfect win-win solution for both countries, as Pakistan has already said it will buy the 500 MW of power that is on offer from India. The proximity factor means that cost per unit is much less than what Pakistan pays to import oil from its Islamic brotherly nations.
On the energy front, India has already offered to build a pipeline from Bhatinda to Lahore, while Pakistan is hoping that it can persuade India to be part of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, especially since the Iranian elections has brought in a supposedly much more moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, who is expected to improve his country’s battered relations with the US. However, India is unlikely to buy into this project because it will jeopardise all those who also do business with the US, which continues to impose sanctions on Iran.
It will be imperative for Manmohan Singh and Obama to come to a deeper understanding on the role India can play not only in South Asia – especially by seeking greater economic contact with both Pakistan and Afghanistan – but also with countries like Iran.
Greater economic contact between India and Pakistan may be the need of the hour, but political wisdom also lies in the fact that Manmohan Singh seek clarity on the cases that are being tried against those accused in the 2008 Mumbai attacks. A Manmohan Singh-Nawaz Sharif meeting cannot be limited to the pursuit of greater economic interaction, especially in an election year, it must be overlaid with political content.
With Shahryar Khan having already invited the PM to visit Pakistan, Pakistani officials said they would like the political and economic dialogue restored sooner than later. However, there is also some nervousness in the new Nawaz Sharif government that an official dialogue will be hijacked by Indian officialdom and get bogged down by the minutiae of small, reciprocal actions.
The Pakistanis say they are very keen that Nawaz Sharif meet Manmohan Singh on the margins of the UNGA in September and are pushing hard for such a meeting. It is believed that the PM is keen too. Over the next few weeks, both sides are expected to work hard to put the meat on such a likely encounter.
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