One year later

It is hard to imagine that it is only a short year since President George W Bush won re-election by a large margin. All the criticisms that were levelled against him during the election campaign, and which he shrugged off without much effort, have suddenly gained purchase. The Iraq war, an issue on which he won rather than lost points during the campaign, has become a millstone round his neck as the American death toll crosses 2,000 without an exit in sight. Opinion polls now show majority opinion in the US has become negative on the war. The use of torture and the violation of the human rights of war captives, which no one even mentioned during the campaign as perhaps an unpatriotic subject, have now been shown to be widespread and systematic in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and not the work of a few rogue soldiers in one detention centre. More than 200 low-ranking people in uniform have been punished, but no one higher up""and in a clear slap to the president, the Senate has been moved to ban all forms of torture on and off American soil, with 90 per cent voting in favour.

After Hurricane Katrina and the flooding of New Orleans, the old charge that Mr Bush doesn't care for the poor and the disadvantaged, has gained currency. At the same time, the post-9/11 image of a capable president leading an efficient administration in a crisis situation has been blown sky-high--and some of the conclusions are being applied to the handling of the Iraq war too. A year ago, criticism of the president was muted on even such subjects as the budget deficit, but now Republicans themselves are wary of the expansion of government that this implies. Mr Bush's support base also broke ranks over the nomination as Supreme Court judge of a candidate short on experience and qualifications and long only on loyalty. And, of course, the indictment of the vice-president's chief of staff has brought the stench of criminal conduct to the White House.

The consequence of all this is that Mr Bush's critics, many of whom had muted their voices over the past five years, have suddenly become more outspoken. It should cause no surprise therefore that Mr Bush's approval ratings have slipped to an all-time low (37 per cent), and on his South American sojourn he appeared embattled and isolated. What this probably means is that Mr Bush's domestic agenda (social security reform, in ways that might have hurt the poor) is all but dead. He might try and recover some ground by showing that the budget deficit can be halved in the remaining three years, but the mid-term elections to Congress next year will certainly pose political challenges and could see Republicans distancing themselves from Mr Bush.

For India, the question that this situation raises is about the future of the nuclear deal that the Prime Minister struck in Washington three months ago. The deal has to be approved by Congress, and the US has to be able to carry along with it the other members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. With little political capital available to spend, will Mr Bush deliver his part of the bargain?