Paran Balakrishnan: The BJP's urban nightmare

MY WORD!

The elections are over and it's time for the knives to come out. As the agony of defeat sinks in there'll be plenty of recriminations in the BJP about what went wrong.

Sure, nobody guessed the mood in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka though the writing was on the wall. And for some reason, hardly anyone realised that he DMK-Congress combine had the numbers to trounce Jayalalithaa.

But why did the BJP lose in urban India? Why was it thrashed 6-1 in Delhi where India should have been shining at its brightest? If there's so much "pheel good" in the air why did so many voters press the Congress button? Was it Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit's sheer charm combined with the feeling she has managed well?

Take a look at the sprawling East Delhi constituency. Back in 1998 the BJP candidate Lal Bihari Tiwari won 48.83 per cent of the vote and defeated a certain Sheila Dikshit by 45,362 votes. This time Dikshit's son Sandeep grabbed 56.22 per cent of the vote in East Delhi and defeated Tiwari by 229,779 votes.

In other Delhi constituencies it was much the same story though the margins weren't as big. BJP stars who fought and lost include Jagmohan, Vijay Goel, Labour Minister Sahib Singh Verma and actor Smriti Iraani.

In Mumbai where the scorecard also went in favour of Congress, which won five seats, the picture is slightly different. That's because the Congress-NCP alliance proved a winner.

But here again Congress candidates romped home. Even 27-year-old Milind Deora triumphed over his BJP rival in South Mumbai by 10,246 votes. And Govinda scored a coup, trouncing veteran politico Ram Naik by 48,271 votes.

Obviously, the NCP-Congress move not to field candidates against each other played a huge role. Look at Mumbai North-East where Congressman Gurudas Kamat galloped past the post by over 99,400 votes, defeating the BJP's high-profile Kirit Somaiya. In 1999 Somaiya won by 7,276 votes.

Last time, Somaiya won because Congress and NCP votes were split. In fact the NCP candidate in the constituency cornered 102,513 votes which pushed Kamat into second position.

It should have been clear to the BJP combine long before the election they would lose Mumbai North-East to NCP-Congress.

What factors came into play in the two metropolises? The clearest reason in Mumbai seems to be the NCP-Congress alliance. But Delhi is trickier.

Even the BJP is mystified. It plans to hold a chintan baithak "" deep introspection "" into its nationwide performance and it's likely to turn into a back-stabbing affair.

But here are a few questions they might like to consider: has the enthusiasm for Hindutva in urban India waned and did that move a few percentage points worth of voters?

Back in the late 1990s people were worked up about Ayodhya and it was easy to find middle-class Indians openly stating the Muslims had it too good.

This time L K Advani's rath yatra barely got any attention, Ayodhya is on the backburner and aggressive Hindutva seems to be out of fashion. One reason could be that Narendra Modi and Gujarat showed how unpleasant militant Hindutva could be and middle-class India recoiled from it.

This could, of course, be wishful thinking. Also, has the Ayodhya issue played itself out? After six years in power when they didn't resolve the problem, the BJP can't now seek to get everyone in a froth about it.

But after having had its one dance with development, the BJP is apparently about to conclude it's not a vote-getter. This might be the Himalayan Blunder of all time.

In Delhi the power situation is no better than before. We're told the benefits of privatisation will kick in soon. Water? There's less of it each year.

Yes, there are flyovers and part of the Metro is running but for the time being they're a nuisance because large parts of the city are being dug up. But it's certainly premature to conclude these aren't vote winners.

How could the BJP have misread the voter mood and been so certain of victory? Hubris? Whatever it was, they'll have plenty of time to reflect upon it now.