Peering into 2021

Macroeconomics in 2021 will turn on consumer demand and firm resolution

The light at the end of the tunnel, of the health dimensions of the pandemic, is now visible. There are many difficulties in conventional data, but a transformation is now unmistakable. As an example, the official data for Mumbai showed the first Covid-19 death in March and peaked at 136 deaths on June 20. The values are now at about three deaths per day. Each neighbourhood and each community in India is at a different place on the epidemic curve, but broadly we are at a late stage of the epidemic. A reduction of deaths could have come from people