Political newsflow, global triggers may keep market volatility high

Q4 show may not be as impactful; volatility is most likely to spike some more after May 16, rising another notch after May 23

The Nifty has crashed in the last three sessions. The proximate trigger was the apparent derailing of the US-China trade talks by Donald Trump’s threats of hiking tariffs. There is also nervousness about the election outcome.  The fourth quarter and the full-year results have been disappointing.

The Vix has climbed new highs. Traders are braced for violent swings. The rupee remains within a range, but it has also dropped in the past two sessions. Crude oil has hardened somewhat on fears of disruption of supply from Iran and Venezuela. The foreign portfolio investors remain net positive on equity in May,