Politics heats up as Congress, and BJP go head-to-head

Public can't be blamed for being wary of the current Congress protests against price rise and unemployment. They have too closely tailed protests directed against ED summons to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition Congress party never saw eye-to-eye, but their confrontation has palpably intensified. Initially, Congress took to the streets against the questioning of its top leadership by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and now it is taking on the government on price rise, the imposition of GST on items of daily consumption and unemployment. 

Last Friday, party MPs and functionaries led by the Gandhi family protested dressed in black to "raise peoples' issues". Rahul Gandhi even claimed that Indian democracy was now nothing more than a memory. The BJP, on the backfoot over rising prices and unemployment, claimed that Congressmen were dressed in black because of their opposition to the Ram Janmabhoomi Temple, the anniversary of whose foundation-laying ceremony also happened to be on August 5. Meanwhile, the ED's announcement that it may soon summon Sonia and Rahul Gandhi to face another set of questions suggests that tensions will continue to rise.
 

The Congress protests began with the questioning of Rahul Gandhi and later of the ageing Sonia Gandhi over several days. Despite rumours, the ED has not arrested either of the Gandhis. There was some expectation that such an eventuality could turn into a watershed moment leading to the revival of the Congress. Partymen perhaps recalled the revival of the Congress following the arrest of Indira Gandhi in October 1977. However, such hopes are belied by the political context and the state of the Congress party today. 

Indira Gandhi's arrest occurred months after Congress lost the March 1977 general election in the aftermath of the Emergency. While the party was psychologically on the back foot, its countrywide structure was intact. Morarji Desai's government was indecisive; there was labour unrest, and prices were rising. Today, the BJP is dealing with a more debilitated and enfeebled Congress after losing two consecutive general elections and a series of state assembly elections. The spirit of its workers is crushed, and their self-confidence is at its lowest ebb. Despite price rise and increasing unemployment, the BJP government appears politically decisive compared to a Congress that cannot even elect a full-time President. Putting a Gandhi behind bars now is unlikely to lend them the martyr's aura and rally the flock the way Indira Gandhi's arrest did, allowing the Congress to make a comeback just three years later in 1980. 

The public cannot be blamed for being wary of the current Congress protests against price rise and unemployment. They have too closely tailed protests directed against the ED summons to Sonia and Rahul Gandhi in the Associated Journals--Young Indian share transfer case. At one level, people begin to wonder whether the Gandhis should consider themselves above the law. This lends credibility to BJP propaganda that the Congress is not serious about the people's issues it is espousing, as its protests are only to pressure the government to stop questioning the Gandhis.

Perhaps the linking of the two protests was unavoidable for the Congress. As parliament reopened for its monsoon session, the government stalled discussion on the worsening state of the economy and price rise for more than a week. So, the first agitation inevitably segued into the second. 

However, now the Congress will have to disaggregate the two protests. It may be trying to do so by transforming protests by Congress workers against price rise etc., into mass mobilisation events. Its proposed rallies and marches to protect the Constitution in every district of the country from August 9 to 15 on the occasion of 75 years of Independence may be a part of this strategy. The six-month-long "Bharat Jodo (Unite India) Yatra", which has been brought forward by a month to begin in September, maybe another step toward mass mobilisation. If the momentum builds up after Congress workers hit the road, the party can build a counter-narrative to that of the BJP. It might also help shape a pro-people agenda for the Congress to pursue in the run-up to 2024. Can the party successfully transform what have, till now, been Congress protests into a larger mass movement? If it manages that shift, it may yet be able to build a credible opposition to the BJP.

Meanwhile, the BJP's onslaught against the Gandhis is likely to continue. In the ED case, it can prolong investigations against the Gandhis and limit the process to only filing a politically damaging charge sheet against them before 2024. Or it can go a step further and get them convicted, stopping short of putting them behind bars. Both strategies would give the BJP ample ammunition for the 2024 election campaign. The public narrative will be filled with allegations and refutations about share transfers, whether there is a difference between a trust (Associated Journals) and a not-for-profit-company (Young India), whether such companies can give any benefit to their promoters and whether the Gandhi family has really acquired the land and building assets of Associated Journals as their personal property in a questionable manner. The people will be none the wiser about any of these issues, but the Gandhis and the Congress would have been painted black and put on the defensive. 

If the government chooses to secure the conviction of the Gandhis before 2024, it will disqualify them from contesting polls. The BJP has the next year and a half to take that call. The significance of the ED case against the Gandhis for the BJP's electoral strategy must not, therefore, be underestimated. 

To escape this narrative the Congress has no option but to create a groundswell of public opinion on larger issues of public concern through a mass movement. It is too early to say whether the mass-contact programme of the Congress will convince the Indian people that existential questions both as citizens and as a nation must triumph over ideological brainwashing, which emphasises past glory but has a hazy roadmap of the future.