Pols scared of polls

Showing a rare unanimity, all political parties have gone to the Election Commission for the third time in as many general elections and complained about opinion and exit polls.

They should be banned after the election process begins (they think) because, as Kapil Sibal of the Congress is reported to have said, "Opinion polls have become opinion-making polls." If that be the case, one wonders why the BJP has joined the chorus, albeit against exit (though not opinion) polls.

The last opinion poll showed many parties either holding their own or even doing better. Yet, the CPI(M) spokesman says that the "polls are being used for political propaganda". His colleagues from other parties agree.

So far, they have been unable to have their way "" except once in 1997, when the Election Commission banned all polls. The Supreme Court had to intervene, and it asked a very pertinent question: under what law are you banning them? The Commission had no answer and since then opinion polls have been conducted.

On exit polls, however, the situation is slightly different in as much as in countries where the voting is all done in one day, exit polls don't matter in the sense of influencing the vote. But in India voting is now spread over several weeks and it is conceivable that their outcomes may influence voters in the next round of polling. But the chances of that happening in any significant way are so remote as to not matter. If at all anyone is influenced, it is the party workers.

The lot that is seen doing worse could get demoralised. But surely it is up to the party leaders to keep the morale of their supporters high "" and to tell them to put their best foot forward. Besides which, everyone knows that pollsters get things wrong "" the history of elections around the world is replete with such examples.

Why, few pollsters got right the outcome of the assembly elections held a few months ago. So, to argue that polls influence the outcome of elections is to stretch a point beyond the limits of credulity.

Nevertheless, there is a danger of all parties banding together in the next parliament to pass a law banning opinion and/or exit polls after the election process has been set in motion. This is the sort of stuff private members' bills are made up of. It allows the main parties to disclaim responsibility while voting for it. Would such a law violate Article 19, which guarantees the freedom of expression and speech? One does not know, but natural instinct suggests that it probably would.

The matter would have to be decided by the courts because it is hard to see such a law not being challenged.