In sharp contrast to the numerous media reports of widespread distress in the country in the wake of demonetisation, the Narendra Modi-led government has started showcasing its achievement. According to the Prime Minister’s Office, 500,000 people participated in a survey to judge the mood of the nation via the Narendra Modi App on mobile phones and the responses came within 24 hours from 2,000 locations across the globe. An overwhelming 90 per cent of the respondents supported the government’s decision to demonetise. The PM immediately took to Twitter and thanked the people for the “historic” participation. The one-of-its-kind survey came at a time when the PM’s move to suddenly wipe out close to 86 per cent of all currency by value has received widespread criticism, especially from the academic community and expert observers of the Indian economy who have sought to highlight not just “huge holes” in planning and implementation but also questioned the very feasibility of the idea.
There are several reasons why the government’s desire to seek redemption via the Narendra Modi app-based survey can be misleading. For one, it suffers from a massive sampling bias, wherein the selection process excludes certain types of respondents by design. Consider this: The maximum disruption because of demonetisation is happening to people in rural India and in the informal sector, essentially people who are hugely dependent on cash. Data show that over 90 per cent of rural areas are unbanked and the government has been totally out of depth in remonetising this lot. Reports suggest that close to 400,000 jobs in the informal sector are at risk even as rural incomes have hit an all-time low. But, very few of these people would have had the wherewithal to download the Narendra Modi app and participate in the survey.
There are other reasons as well. Barring the unanimity about the negative impact on short-term growth, there is no clarity even among economists how demonetisation will pan out. Even on growth, the expected impact varies from a dip of 10 basis points to a collapse by 350 basis points. Add to that the lack of debate surrounding this move. This implies that an average respondent is obviously swayed more by his or her trust in the PM’s words than anything else. But surely, this is not the best way to seek validation of complicated policy decisions that affect the lives of millions, in this case over one billion people.
Lastly, there were some unsavoury aspects to the use of this particular app. For one, it is a private app but enjoys the government’s backing. Secondly, people have resented the intrusive demands of the app — it compulsorily asks for one’s phone number, date of birth, profession, and interests. In fact, most worryingly, it also asks for one’s voter identity, although this bit is optional. Then there is the issue that the questions either do not contain the option to “disagree” or do not lay out the full array of policy choices available to the government. And, there is one question that attempts to discredit any disagreement as siding with the corrupt. All of this is undesirable and avoidable.
