Positive developments

The Hurriyat is preparing to visit Pakistan. The coming weeks may see a settlement of the dispute over the Baglihar dam. The ambitious railway line to Srinagar is nearing completion and one section will soon be opened to traffic. Some back-channel proposals are being discussed to disengage in Siachen. Through these disparate and seemingly unconnected developments, there runs the common thread of positive movement on bilateral relations with Pakistan, and with regard to Kashmir.

Three years ago, in January, President Pervez Musharraf promised to not allow the use of Pakistan as a base for cross-border terrorism. That promise has been kept only partially, but there is a clear relaxation of border tensions, even as the cease-fire along the line of control continues to hold. In the realm of diplomacy, Pakistan has more or less given up its old demands for a plebiscite and for implementing UN resolutions""in recognition of the fact that they were non-starters and not enforceable. Then, Manmohan Singh's formulation, that borders cannot be withdrawn and that borders should be made meaningless, has been accepted as the basis for moving forward""in effect, sanctifying the Line of Actual Control. Indeed, it has even been declared that Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is not a part of Pakistan. Technically, that is of course correct but open admission of the reality has almost certainly been done to prepare public opinion in Pakistan.

On India's side, after it was acknowledged that Kashmir is a dispute that has to be resolved and therefore discussed, the government has allowed the separatist Hurriyat to become part of the dialogue""something inconceivable seven or eight years ago. India has also tacitly accepted that it is not going to get real movement on issues like Pakistan honouring its commitment to making the South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta) a reality, or on permitting through traffic, until there is movement on Kashmir. These may not seem like giant steps, and it is arguable that on Safta Pakistan is the bigger loser, but it is clear that the long journey towards amicably resolving a 60-year-old dispute has begun.

Typically, President Musharraf has sought to leapfrog by proposing final solutions""de-militarisation, re-zoning, self-governance and joint management. These are premature pronouncements that go well beyond anything that is immediately practicable, but they are obviously intended to push the process along. Manmohan Singh on his part has made a gesture to Pakistan by talking of joint initiatives on terrorism, and of working towards a peace and friendship treaty. Pakistan, meanwhile, may score a small victory on the Baglihar dam, which will probably require some slight modifications once the report of the neutral expert is in. India will be happy to concede the small stuff because it will allow the dam to be used""which is the substantive point at issue. Both sides can therefore claim victory. Importantly, this may help revive and bring to fruition some other projects that have been held up because of Pakistan's objections under the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty.

In terms of confidence-building measures, the re-opening of a second road link and an old rail link has symbolic value. If the Sir Creek issue can be resolved, it will demonstrate that compromises can be made by both countries in order to arrive at a settlement. Unfortunately, the idea of an Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline has got bogged down. So there is nothing on the cards with the capacity to transform expectations on both sides about a different quality of bilateral relations. That serves to underline the point that, once the small stuff has been sweated out, there will come the real challenge, of grappling with substantive issues and coming up with win-win solutions.