The political landscape of Andhra Pradesh has been totally transformed after the decision of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) to accord statehood to the Telangana region.
Neither the Congress nor the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which ruled the state ever since its formation in 1956, are now in a position to come to power on its own in the coming 2014 elections.
While the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, 2013, approved by the Union Cabinet on Friday, has weakened the electoral prospects of the ruling Congress and the Opposition TDP, it has boosted the chances of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the fledgling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP).
With people in general being polarised on regional lines, YSRCP, which projected itself as the party that totally opposed to the state's bifurcation, had improved its prospects in Andhra and Rayalaseema regions, combined being called as Seemandhra. TRS naturally has gained in Telangana, as it had spearheaded movement for a separate state.
Though not a major player in the state, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also set to gain in Telangana. The pre-poll surveys indicate that the party is likely to bag seven to 10 Assembly seats, as against two seats it had won in 2009 polls. The party, which could not win a single Lok Sabha seat in last elections, is also expected to win one Parliament seat this time.
The Congress, which never conceded the demand for creation of a Telangana state despite prolonged agitations in two spells in 1969 and from early 2000, caught the Seemandhra leaders by surprise when it announced its decision for bifurcation of the state on July 30, 2013.
It is widely believed that the Congress took the decision to shore up its declining stock in the state. But what happened is contrary to its expectations. It did not reckon that the decision will have serious repercussion in Seemandhra with people from all sections of society hitting the street in protest against the party's move to divide the state.
Nevertheless, caught in a Catch-22 situation, the Congress could not withdraw its decision. It would have been wiped out in Telangana if the decision had been reviewed. So, it went ahead with the CWC resolution and came up with the Andhra Pradesh Reorganisation Bill, 2013, that provides for the state's bifurcation. Thursday last (January 30) marked the end of the mandatory debate on the Bill in the state legislative Assembly.
According to the findings of a recent survey, the Congress in the state might end up with a meagre three to five Parliament seats in the ensuing general elections in 2014. In 2009, it had bagged 33 of the 42 seats. The TDP, which bagged six seats in 2009, is projected to get just three-five seats.
On the other hand, the survey spells good news for YSRCP, which is expected to bag 23-25 seats. It also stated that the TRS would improve its tally from its present two to 10 seats by 2014.
Even in the Assembly elections, to be held simultaneously with Lok Sabha polls, the survey predicts Congress to bag a meagre 28-35 seats as against 156 in 2009. The TDP is expected to get 48-54 seats, a steep decline from around 90 seats it secured in the last elections.
On the other hand, the YSRCP is projected to get 132-145 seats and TRS is expected to get 59-63 seats - a sixfold increase compared to 10 seats it had bagged in 2009.
The TDP lost the ground as it flip-flopped on the statehood issue fearing that a clear-cut stand will result in loss of support in one region or the other. TDP President Chandrababu Naidu had earlier supported the creation of Telangana in the belief that the Congress will never give it.
Once the Congress decided to bifurcate the state, Naidu maintained that both Telangana and Seemandhra were like his "two eyes" and one can't be preferred over the other. This seems to have not gone well with people of both the regions, particularly those belonging to Telangana.
Naidu, who seems to be waging a war for survival, has toured the state extensively in recent times. Of late, he appears to be moving close towards BJP with which TDP had a tie-up in 1999 elections. There is speculation in this regard even though Naidu subsequently said his party would never again have a truck with the Saffron party.
The Congress, on the other hand, seemed to have firmed up its plans for the elections. According to political analysts, it is most likely to have pre electoral alliance with TRS and post-electoral tie-up with YSRCP.
TRS President K Chandrasekhar Rao earlier stated that his party would merge with the Congress if the national party accorded statehood to Telangana. But, so far TRS has not given its commitment regarding the merger aspect.
Meanwhile, there are reports that there is a rethink in TRS on the merger issue and it might as well go alone in the elections. In such a case, the Congress might end up losing on both sides of the divide. Congress leaders are, however, confident that, if not merger, at least there will be a tie-up with TRS in the forthcoming polls.
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