<b>Probal Basak:</b> Will Trinamool's loss be BJP's gain?

Mukul Roy could quit the Trinamool Congress and lead many others with him to the Bharatiya Janata Party

It is said that colour speaks all languages. This Holi, colour did speak or was made to speak by Trinamool Congress (TMC) Rajya Sabha MP Mukul Roy.

Roy, speculated to be on the verge of leaving the TMC, did play Holi with his followers in his hometown Kanchrapara. But unlike previous occasions, this year, the colour green (symbolising the TMC) was missing and Roy's face was seen painted saffron.

A week back, TMC chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee made her final comments about Roy, at one time a staunch personal loyalist and till recently the undisputed number two in the party, before dethroning him from the post of all India-general secretary of the party.
 

"He (Roy) used to do good work for the party. But nowadays, he does not attend party meetings and I have heard he is going to the Election Commission (EC) frequently these days." she reportedly said at a closed-door meeting.

Many would say Banerjee was uncharitable in dismissing Roy's contribution as "good work", as many credit him with single-handedly growing the party organisation across the state, which has been a catalyst for the TMC's electoral sweep in recent years. Critics say that Roy was also the TMC's principle deal-maker and engineered the defection of several Left and Congress MLAs.

In Roy's own words, he realised that to defeat the Left Front in West Bengal, a party needed a strong grassroots organisation across the state similar to the Left. "Mamata Banerjee was popular even in 2001, but we lacked organisation and my sole aim was to correct that. The organisation started responding from 2008, resulting in electoral success thereafter," Roy recalled recently during a discussion with journalists. This could also be interpreted as Roy sending feelers to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that Banerjee was not invincible and to tap the anti-government sentiment across the state, the saffron party needed booth-level organisation, which Roy could deliver.

Roy fell from grace after he was summoned by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in the Saradha case. Roy publicly never criticised the CBI. His critics say he has turned into a rebel within the TMC to save himself and reportedly shared information about the party's alleged nexus with the Saradha group of companies.

Whatever be the reason, Roy is certain to walk away from the TMC and it is his future move, many say, that has the potential to become a deciding factor in West Bengal politics. Soon after he was stripped of all party posts, Roy added a twist to the tale, saying his former party, the Congress, had approached him recently.

But sources close to Roy indicate that he is more keen to join the BJP, a rising force in West Bengal politics. "You people miss the important photographs," Roy said recently during an informal discussion with journalists, responding to a question on whether he had met or was scheduled to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi or BJP President Amit Shah.

Sources in the West Bengal BJP said Roy had recently met Amit Shah in Delhi, but what transpired in the meeting could not be confirmed. In fact, days before Banerjee's first meeting with Modi in Delhi earlier that week, Roy, too, was understood to have called on Modi on February 26. Many within the BJP believe it would be wise to wait a bit longer to see whether Roy's name surfaces in the CBI chargesheets in the Saradha scam.

This, however, entirely depends on how many would follow Mukul Roy out of the TMC. Roy certainly has his own following in the party and sources close to him say the number could be as many as 30 MLAs. Apart from his son and TMC MLA Subhrangshu Roy, Barrackpore MLA Shilbhadra Dutta, Rajarhat-Newtown MLA Sabyasachi Dutta, Haldia MLA Shiuli Saha are only some of the leaders known to be Mukul Roy loyalists in the TMC. But how many of them will eventually follow Roy to the BJP will decide whether he is an asset or liability.

"The TMC has 191 MLAs out of 294 in the West Bengal Assembly. If 50 of them quit, the government will no longer be in majority. Wait till March-April... Would Mamata Banerjee be able to continue till 2016 as chief minister? I have my doubts," TMC leader from Murshidabad district and former TMC minister Humayun Kabir said. Kabir, who was recently suspended by the TMC, went ahead and hinted that a handful of MLAs from Murshidabad, Nadia and Hooghly districts could go with Roy, without divulging any names. In fact, Roy is understood to have been involved in finalising the names.

While the BJP is biding its time, Roy has claimed that he was the founder general secretary and the main applicant to the EC while setting up the TMC.

"I am the founder of the party and Mamata (Banerjee) is the chairperson. It's her prerogative to remove me from the party post. Let me tell you that on December 17, 1997, when I first applied to form the party (Trinamool) under the People's Representation Act, the current chairperson (Banerjee) was not a member of it," Roy said.

Technically, he is not wrong. He formed the TMC on December 17, 1997 and Banerjee joined on December 22, 1997. This has prompted the top TMC leadership to speculate whether Roy would take this matter to the EC or court. Roy, however, said he had no such plans and made the comments only to send a reminder to Banerjee.

But it is being said that Banerjee does not want to take any chances. Last week, she decided to appoint Lok Sabha MP Subrata Bakshi to liaise with the EC, something that Roy used to do, and appointed him as party's national secretary.