R Jagannathan: Kashmir and systems thinking

MICROVIEW

India and Pakistan want to build peace by tackling the "Kashmir" dispute. The whole of eastern India is in turmoil due to a "demographic invasion" from Bangladesh.

Nepal is under attack by Maoist radicals. Several sectarian divides are opening up in India""based on caste, religion, language""and there is intense pressure to create smaller states. What's the connection between these issues?

Answer: South Asia, and indeed the whole world, is one socio-politico-ecosystem. And problems with any system can only be handled with "systems" thinking. You can't deal with one issue in isolation without setting off another problem somewhere.

From a short-term political perspective, it may seem easier to deal with one problem at a time. But the operative word is "seem". The easiness is only apparent and not real.

While I am not suggesting that every problem needs to be solved at the same time, we definitely need a broader vision before we start. Without that, a solution to "Kashmir"""or any of the other issues""will end up generating more problems than it solves.

The broad visions on the basis of which South Asia needs to try and solve its various conflicts are obvious. One, it has to be rooted in the reality of globalisation.

States have to allow a fairly free movement of goods, services and people on the basis of economic advantage. Two, no movement on any front is possible without a convergence of political systems and ideologies.

And three, progress is possible only with the right admixture of democracy and devolution of power to the lowest possible levels all over South Asia.

So what does this mean in practical terms? Taking the economic vision first, it means South Asia must start moving towards an EU-like structure, where trade barriers are brought down dramatically.

While India has made a start in this direction with some neighbours, one area where no thought has been applied is people movement. No free trade area in South Asia can succeed without allowing a freer movement of people.

Over the next two decades, this will mean more Bangladeshis moving into India. This will happen whether we like it or not; the point is to use this unstoppable demographic force as a tool to reinvent India and South Asia rather than treat it merely as an ethnic bone of contention. For starters, this means working on an agreement for a freer issue of work permits to Bangladeshi citizens without voting rights; citizenship can follow the existing rules anyway.

What India needs to do is use this lever to get Bangladesh to control insurgency in its periphery, and to turn itself into a modern secular state.

The key to a South Asian Economic Community lies not only in harnessing economic forces, but political ideology too. It is pointless trying to solve Kashmir without resolving the more fundamental issue of states defining themselves on the basis of religion.

This means Pakistan and Bangladesh have to commit themselves to becoming secular states. In this day and age, an Islamic state (or a Hindu one) is an abomination, an aberration. No state has the right to define itself on a religious or sectarian basis; if anyone doesn't think so, he should not mind a BJP or VHP seeking a Hindu state, too. The problem with Indian secularism is that the so-called secularists accept the logic of an Islamic Pakistan or Bangladesh, but not a Hindu India.

Put another way, the problem is not "Kashmir" but Pakistan. The core issue is not about autonomy or azaadi in Kashmir, but Pakistan abandoning its idea of an Islamic state. Until Pakistan commits itself to secularism, Kashmir cannot be solved. Once it does, every solution is possible.

Dealing with Kashmir in isolation is a recipe for disaster. In fact, the Kashmiris themselves need to be challenged to bring the Pandits back to the valley as proof of their own secularism.

The point is: if everyone in a state is free to practise and profess whatever he or she wants without state intervention, what is the merit in azaadi? You are already azaad.

As for the third point""democracy and devolution""there's no doubt that India and the whole of South Asia must move political and economic decision-making down to the lowest possible level.

The BJP wants to abolish Article 370; it can do so by making Article 370 applicable to all states. The truth is Indian states need azaadi as much as Kashmir does.

If the Centre restricts itself to four or five key powers""defence, currency, international trade, and a few others""we will have created the right conditions for all the states of South Asia to join a future economic union.

The EU has moved from absolute political independence of states to economic and political inter-dependence. India, which has political and economic union, needs to loosen up to devolve greater political and economic power to its states so that a wider South Asian inter-dependent economic and political union can be established.

rjagann@business-standard.com