R Jagannathan- Verdict '04: So-nia to disaster

MICROVIEW

Sometimes, it's difficult to predict disaster till it actually stares you in the face. One such disaster-in-waiting is Sonia Gandhi, the country's prime minister-to-be.

I am appalled at the complete naivete of the Indian press and some of its celebrated columnists, who have given a rousing welcome to her. With the exception of one columnist "" Tavleen Singh "" I have not seen any coherent comment on the inappropriateness of Sonia Gandhi as PM. This shows the extreme short-sightedness of the media, which has got carried away by the so-called verdict in her favour. I don't believe the verdict was an endorsement of Sonia Gandhi.

If she takes over as prime minister, she will be the most vulnerable puppet one has seen in a long time. And the reason is simple: most self-respecting Indians will not be happy with the idea of an Italian-born person as PM.

This is not to say that all Indians feel this way, but a key section of the intelligentsia certainly does. And verdict 2004 has the potential to divide the country as even Narendra Modi could not. Every act of Sonia as PM will be scrutinised for malafide intentions, making it virtually impossible for her to rule this country in an honest and efficient manner.

Let me illustrate this point: Let's assume Sonia was the PM in 1999. She's lucky she wasn't. If Kargil had happened on her watch, the BJP and the rest of the opposition would have gone to town claiming that only an Indian can defend India.

As an Italian, she was probably hand-in-glove with the US administration and Pakistan to force a Kashmir solution that would have gone against our interests. And, it is more than likely that such a charge would have stuck.

In actual fact, it was the Vajpayee government that was sleeping when intruders built bunkers on Kashmir's hilltops. But most Indians were willing to condone it because this was mere incompetence, not perfidy. With Sonia, they would have presumed the latter.

The point I am coming to is clear: Sonia will be a disaster precisely because the benefit of doubt that you may give a born Indian will not be given to her. She has no leeway to make mistakes. It will be easy for the BJP to raise her Catholic origins and alleged connections with European and Western powers to block her at every step.

I am sure that the lady herself realises this, and this is why she is seeking Left support for her government. She knows that if she is left alone with the remaining wolves "" Mulayam, Pawar and Co "" she will be vulnerable as never before.

A few woolly-headed intellectuals may argue that Sonia's rise shows the wisdom and inclusiveness of Indian society "" but that is a load of bull. It is actually a comment on the level to which sycophants can stoop to give her a false sense of power when there is really no basis for it.

Sonia's lieutenants and the leaders of parties aligned to her are telling her today that she is acceptable as PM because they have their own axes to grind; but to large sections of people she is not. The same people who say the people have voted for her as PM will dump her like a sack of potatoes when the tide turns "" as it surely will.

The coming weeks will prove this point. I have not known of a single election in which the defeated party feels rejuvenated on the day after the elections. But this is precisely what is happening in the BJP once it became clear that Sonia will offer herself as a target by accepting the prime ministership.

Leader after leader has suddenly found an issue in Sonia's foreign origins "" Sushma Swaraj, Uma Bharti, K N Govindacharya, Pramod Mahajan "" not to speak of Narendra Modi and the Sangh Parivar.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if this provides BJP a new lift.Verdict 2004 has pulled the curtains down on the Atal-Advani era and the BJP's second generation leaders will soon rise to the top: if the old leadership does not step aside gracefully, the party's young turks will push them aside roughly.

That's because the BJP today has a reason to enthuse its cadres. And this is true for all the non-BJP parties that are now part of the opposition. Xenophobia is only a little below the surface for most Indians.

Then what explains the Congress victory in the general elections? I suspect that most people voted against incumbent governments at the state and central levels, but not specifically to see Sonia as PM. I doubt if any voter seriously thought about having an Italian-born person as the country's PM.

But now that they have voted her party to power, the enormity of what they have done may sink in "" and the voter may well not like what he sees. Sonia continues to be the BJP's best bet for a revival.

rjagann@business-standard.com