Well begun," it is said, "is half done." Normally, this should be true of the monsoon as well. However, in reality, it is not always so. The early onset of the southwest monsoon all over the country and a bountiful initial wet spell do not guarantee the monsoon's continued good performance over the rest of the four-month (June to September) monsoon season. Last year, too, the monsoon had covered the entire country by July 11, four days ahead of schedule; but the overall rainfall in July and early August turned out to be woefully deficient and erratic. A sizeable part of southern and western India remained under the grip of drought - despite a spectacular rebound in the monsoon in August-end and September. The season's grain output plummeted by nearly five per cent.
This year, too, the possibility that monsoon rains will slacken to a certain extent in the coming weeks cannot be ruled out. Though the India Meteorological Department predicts 101 per cent of normal (long-period average) rainfall in July and 94 per cent in August, many more credible foreign agencies aren't that optimistic. The US government's Climate Prediction Centre, for instance, suspects that the Indian monsoon might begin to lose steam from next week itself and the overall rainfall may slip to a below-normal range in July. Many other agencies, too, have captured signs of dry westerly winds blowing towards northwestern India, which might soon cause a break in monsoon rains - particularly in the country's key rabi belt in the north. However, the upside is that there are indications of the emergence of La Nina - although in a weak avatar - in the later part of the monsoon season, which often has a favourable influence on the southwest monsoon.
Almost all of India, including regions that were earlier hit by drought, has at this time received sufficient rainfall - nearly 30 per cent above normal - thereby expediting kharif sowing. This may also lead to a rise in the cropped area compared to last year. The worry on this count, however, is that the early and plentiful rainfall may favour sowing of paddy at the cost of scarce oilseeds and pulses, further distorting the cropping pattern. Unless the government amends its grain procurement policy to allow larger paddy purchases by private traders and exporters, it might needlessly swell the already excessive grain stockholding in the official kitty. As a plus, however, these rains will replenish underground water aquifers as well as the major reservoirs to improve the prospects of crop irrigation and hydropower production in the post-monsoon period. The demand for power is already said to have dropped by a fifth and power rates have reportedly dipped in the north from their April highs. The agriculture sector's requirement of diesel, too, has slumped.
So, in spite of the early and plentiful rain, it is better to wait at least till August before claiming to have a realistic assessment of the impact of the monsoon on the economy, agriculture and hydrology. Till then, it would be advisable to remain on guard and stay prepared to face any unforeseeable contingency.
