CRICONOMICS
Surjit S Bhalla and Ankur Choudhary
Rupa
180 pages; Rs 295
Reviewers, I must confess without shame, can be influenced by what they think of the author. I am afraid this is going to be one of those occasions but with a small proviso.
I have known Surjit for over three decades, but have no idea who his co-author is. So the likelihood of a good review is half. So hold your breath, Mr Bhalla.
Also, most "bad" reviews tell the reader what is not there in the book instead of critiquing what there is. I will follow this protocol in half.
But I am not about to bowl to the authors' strength, which lies in looking at the data, even if somewhat mechanically, and arriving at interesting conclusions that can be counter-intuitive - for example, Shane Warne was no good as a one-day bowler, or Hansie Cronje was the best captain of all times.
The authors reach many similar conclusions about who the best batsman was, who the greatest amongst them was, who has been the best bowler, the best wicket keeper, the best captain and so on.
Each conclusion is based on rigorous statistical analysis. Take it on faith, don't argue.
The most important thing is the book is based on a new statistical invention called MES, short for "Match Equivalent Score". I will not inflict the method of calculation on you. Suffice it to say that it combines the average with the strike rate - for both batsmen and bowlers - so that selectors can get a better picture of a player's worth to the side.
Alas, form does not enter the picture. But I do know of players who lost form because of domestic hassles, including one whose wife, when he was at his peak (no pun intended), wanted a divorce and took his house away. It took him a year and a half to regain form, which is perhaps why he does not figure in this book at all.
The book also analyses the stress on players and how it changes during a match, the chances of a comeback by a team from a down-and-out situation, and the upsets. The statistical methods are interesting, but you know what? Field placing as an outcome-influencing variable is left out altogether.
Having done their statistical fandango, the authors make some very interesting recommendations about how one-day cricket should change. They also predict who is likely to win the 2015 World Cup now under way.
All I can say here is that if some of these recommendations are accepted, cricket might end up like baseball. Shortening the game will not address the key issue, which has nothing to do with the game itself but with TV.
Late swing
The biggest problem I have with this book is that it doesn't distinguish between outcome and process. It relies entirely on outcomes and ignores processes totally.
But cricket, as I have written often, is a "more" non-linear game than others because it has more variables when action takes place. It also has the shortest action time, that is, between the time a ball is bowled and it is played or not.
This is one second or less. In fact, the game is long precisely because the action has to be repeated many times to have a decent game. Imagine a one-ball over.
The tendency to shorten - and the authors want to shorten it further - has resulted in fewer repetitions, which affects all the things that the book has analysed. Or, if I may say so, highly non-linear phenomena don't lend themselves to statistical analysis.
Indeed non-linearity means unpredictability. The more non-linear it is, the more unpredictable it becomes.
The game, one should know, is affected by two dozen or so variables between the time the ball is bowled and it is played, or not. Its non-linearity is because of this. It is also the death of regression.
I can go on in this vein but must warn the potential reader: this book will be very fascinating for people who understand numbers. But remember that process is important and the variables that affect the game.
An India player once told me this can include the gastric condition of the umpires, who are actually the 14th and 15th players on the field. They participate more in cricket than in any other game. Mr Bhalla's next book should be on them.
What say, Sir Surjit?
