Resilience, recovery and then revival

Much remains uncertain about the Indian economy's future path. How can we grade the government's efforts to prop it up?

This week the government’s statisticians will release their estimate of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) over the third quarter of the ongoing year. This comes after a major slump in the second quarter — a contraction of about 24 per cent driven of course by the comprehensive national lockdown imposed at the end of the first quarter of this calendar year. The consensus estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg is that GDP will shrink again, but at a much lower rate — between 8 and 9 per cent. This would reflect the fact that much activity in the economy