Ringing loud

November saw more than one lakh subscribers a day

With mobile schemes becoming more attractive, subscriber additions are at a new high. November saw a remarkably strong addition to the mobile telephony base at 3.5 million, an increase of 56 per cent y-o-y and 5.2 per cent m-o-m. That's more than one lakh subscribers a day.

The addition is the highest in any single month""the net addition in October was 2.9 million""and this takes the total mobile telephony base to 71 million.

The star performers have been Tata Teleservices (TTSL) whose share of net addition was 20.8 per cent, while Bharti Tele's share was 19.3 per cent. TTSL has nearly doubled it's net additions over the previous month.

Taking Fixed Wireless Lines (FWL) into account, TTSL's net addition at 8.69 lakh would be even higher. The public sector Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) too turned in a good performance with a net addition share of 22.3 per cent. However, IDEA Cellular continues to lose share in a growing market.

It's the new scheme from TTSL which allows two years of incoming without a recharge that seems to have done the trick. It's not clear though how profitable such low Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) products would be for the operators.

TTSL's strategy is obviously to gain market share, especially since it has been a very late entrant. It would probably discontinue the scheme after some time when it feels it has reached a certain subscriber target. However, with ARPUs generally trending downwards, operators are bound to face pressure.

Industrial Production: Slowdown signs?

Industrial production decelerated further in October, confirming that industry is not likely to grow as strongly as last year. Overall industrial production grew by 8.5 per cent y-o-y, getting a major boost from electricity which grew 7.4 per cent.

In September, the IIP grew just 6.9 per cent, as compared to the earlier estimate of 7.3 per cent. A higher base in October 2004, when industry grew by 10.6 per cent is also partially responsible for the decline in October 2005.

After a robust improvement in mining during the first quarter of FY06, the sector has been declining. In October, it fell 1.8 per cent y-o-y. Manufacturing, which stopped recording a double-digit growth since July, rose 9.6 per cent y-o-y in October, against 8.5 per cent in September.

'Machinery and Equipment other than Transport equipment' and 'Transport Equipment and Parts' rose 12 per cent and 15.9 per cent respectively. 'Beverages, Tobacco and Related Products' rose 21.6 per cent y-o-y in October though 'Food products' declined 7.7 per cent.

'Cotton textiles' as well as 'textile products' were two other industries to post good growth of 10.9 per cent and 16 per cent respectively.

Between April-October 2005, the IIP has gained 8.4 per cent against 8.7 per cent in previous corresponding period. The capital goods sector is still growing strong with a whopping rise of 24.1 per cent in October 2005, compared to 13.2 per cent rise in October 2004 and 21.9 per cent in September 2005.

But the question is will this segment continue to grow as rapidly in the coming months? Reports indicate that the top 300 companies are slated to invest Rs 320,000 crore over the next 12-18 months, which can keep this part of the economy robust. Even between April-October, capital goods has gained 16.6 per cent against 13.7 per cent in previous corresponding period. If this trend continues till March, this year will be the year of the highest growth in the capital goods index in the past decade.