It took a rude wakeup call from the currency market to stir Indonesia's central bank. At an emergency meeting on August 29, the monetary authority raised its benchmark and overnight deposit rates. It's a decision Bank Indonesia should have made at its last official gathering less than two weeks ago. An obsession with economic growth stayed its hand.
Indonesia's growth fixation is making it a risky bet. Inflation is already high at 8.6 per cent, the rupiah is falling, and foreign investors have pulled more than $700 million from the country's stock market this year. An economy that needs to finance a current account deficit equivalent to 2.4 per cent of GDP can't afford to spook investors just when rising US interest rates are making foreign funds harder to come by.
The belated action raises the rate that the central bank charges lenders to look after their overnight deposits by half a percentage point to 5.25 per cent. That will make keeping funds in Indonesia slightly more attractive for investors.
More From This Section
The selloff in emerging markets has exposed the flaws of running a loose monetary policy in the hope of lifting economic growth to 6.4-6.8 per cent next year, from an estimated six per cent in 2013. That's because Indonesia must simultaneously weaken the rupiah in order to offset competitiveness lost as a result of rising wages. But regaining that advantage won't be a free lunch: Every one per cent decline in the rupiah pushes up inflation by 13 basis points. Since May 22, the Indonesian currency has fallen 11 per cent against the dollar.
The emergency increase in interest rates is a good start. But monetary policy will have to become even tighter to tame inflation and close the trade gap. The sooner the authorities drop their growth obsession, the better it will be for Indonesia - and for investors.
