Russia's moves

The ramifications of the European Union's expansion and now the warming of its ties with Russia transcend immediate horizons. For, these are likely to have a bearing on issues like the earth's environment and the membership profile of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

This is because Russia, which has so far steadfastly resisted ratification of the Kyoto protocol on climate change, has finally indicated its willingness to do so in exchange for the enlarged EU's assurance that it will drop its objection to Russia joining the WTO.

This will enable the Kyoto accord to come into force despite the world's largest polluter, the US, remaining out of it. It will also make the WTO a truly global body with all the major trading countries in its ranks.

At present, Russia and the oil kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the only two major global traders that are still not members of the WTO. And Saudi Arabia, which first applied for membership of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1993, is already quite close to joining the world body, having fulfilled most of the pre-requisites.

Even without being a member, it has agreed to abide by some of the WTO's sector-specific accords. Russia, on the other hand, has found the going more difficult.

But the problem now seems to be resolved, thanks to the expanded EU and Russia sensing greater inter- and intra-regional trade opportunities.

From Russia's point of view, the agreement with the EU and the prospects of expanded trade will lower the risks to the domestic economy, giving President Vladimir Putin the room to manoeuvre his way on the Kyoto ratification issue.

With the pro-Putin bloc holding a two-thirds majority in the Russian parliament, the president can be assured of getting his way.

However, Russian ratification only ensures the coming into force of the global climate treaty; it does not automatically warranty the desired results in the form of reduction in the emission of ozone-depleting gases.

Indeed, the real success of the protocol in achieving its goals will depend on how soon and how effectively the much needed clean development mechanism (CDM) can be put in place.

And this is more an economic than an environmental issue. Clean technologies are inherently more costly and, as such, are beyond the reach of the developing countries.

Besides, there is no consensus so far on who should bear the cost of implementing the CDM, and in what proportion these should be shared by the developed and developing countries. Unless these issues are also sorted out, the mere legitimisation of the Kyoto treaty will provide only cold comfort.