Typically, in the event of a long-married couple seeking divorce, friends and family take positions on either side. On the political stage, this situation is best unfolding itself in Bihar.
While the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), or JD (U), in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for many years, opted to sever ties in June 2013, the Congress and Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), together through thick and thin for a decade, are on different political trajectories lately.
In the last month or so, political equations in the state have changed. The Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), led by Ram Vilas Paswan, earlier a strong supporter of the Congress, is now praising the governance credentials of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). Senior RJD leader Ram Kripal Yadav is asking people to vote for the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, whom he had earlier criticised in the harshest terms.
The unfolding of events has hit the JD (U) the hardest. The party seems to be on the brink of a major crisis, with Nitish's ministers opening a front against him; his closest lieutenants have deserted him.
None, however, are bereft of crisis. While the BJP is riding high on opinion polls, it isn't having it easy on the ground. Most of its old guard is furious over the distribution of tickets to party hoppers. And, Lalu Prasad is finding it difficult to keep his flock together.
Anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar, however, is aiding the BJP. Also, its break-up with the JD (U) has worked in its favour. The backward card played by its prime ministerial candidate Modi has lured many in Bihar. To strengthen its credentials, it has also joined hands with Ram Vilas Paswan, who has been disappointed by the treatment meted out by former allies the Congress and the RJD. For the BJP, the induction of Ram Kripal Yadav is a window to lure many from the Yadav community.
Now, many from different backgrounds are joining the BJP. This, however, limits the share of the pie for its own cadre, something that has triggered a rebellion among upper caste leaders such as Giriraj Singh, Ashwini Chaubey, CP Thakur and Chandra Mohan Rai.
"We are giving tickets to whoever has a better chance of winning. This is a crucial election for us and these leaders should understand that," said a senior leader of the party.
RJD-Congress
The RJD combine, trying to cash in on sympathy for its leader Lalu Prasad after his conviction and incarceration in the fodder scam, took a major blow when its long-term partner, the LJP, joined hands with the BJP. Though RJD chief Lalu Prasad wanted Paswan as an ally, he didn't want to part with more than five seats. Many felt Lalu would ultimately blink, but he didn't. And, LJP moved on. With this, Lalu Prasad lost the only major Dalit face in his team.
As it turned out, Paswan wasn't the only one who left Prasad. Just a fortnight later, Ram Kripal Yadav, one of his most trusted lieutenants, also joined the BJP. Ram Kripal Yadav was unhappy with ticket distribution, particularly the fact that Lalu's eldest daughter Misa Bharti was chosen for the Patliputra seat.
Now, Lalu Prasad is trying hard to revive his tried and tested Muslim-Yadav equation. The Yadavs see him as their leader, albeit a leader who can't see beyond his family. The Muslims consider him a leader with proven credentials against the BJP. But here, too, he has to struggle, as the JD (U) is also trying to woo minority votes.
The JD (U)
Allotment of tickets to newcomers at the cost of old guard has brought the JD (U) on the verge of a split, with several leaders, including two senior ministers in Bihar, taking on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Agriculture minister Narendra Singh and transport minister Brishen Patel have conveyed their displeasure at the allotment of tickets. "The manner in which tickets are being distributed is highly controversial. A committee should be constituted to decide on candidates, after consultation with party office-bearers and workers," they say.
Allotment of tickets has also irked several of the chief minister's trusted lieutenants. Once considered Kumar's right-hand man, Gyanendra Singh, or 'Gyanu', has lashed out at the party leadership. On Wednesday, the party responded by issuing him a show-cause notice.
Last month, senior JD (U) leader Devesh Chandra Thakur had quit the party after he was denied a ticket.
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
