As Nitish Kumar begins his third innings as chief minister of Bihar, leading a coalition of his party, the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, he seems more cautious than joyous. The seasoned politician that he is, Kumar understands the challenges that lie ahead and is preparing to tackle them.
Kumar's first task is to manage this coalition of not-exactly-like-minded parties. A pointer to what his approach would be in this department was on view during his first official engagement after being sworn-in as chief minister: a three-hour-long meeting with senior administrative and police officials whom he directed to not "compromise on the rule of law". He clearly instructed them that "criminals must be dealt with according to the law and irrespective of their standing and position".
Political observers say Kumar's orders were more than just a reply to barbs from rival parties of a "return to jungle raj" in the state - they were also aimed at his own party MLAs as well as coalition partner, RJD, whose 15-year rule in the state is remembered for its poor management of law and order.
The ruling coalition's leaders are unfazed. "Law and order is a matter of perception," claimed a JD-U spokesperson. "People don't read numbers; they feel them. Rarely will anyone in Bihar say the law and order situation has not been better during Kumar's reign. Our law and order machinery ensures peace for all and security for women. It remains our top priority."
"Kumar is trying to negate the fear of the urban middle class that a coalition with RJD chief Prasad means a return to old days," said a former JD-U MP on condition of anonymity. "He wants them to know that he is in command and would not allow miscreants to take control. He understands that every move of his government would be closely watched. He knows he is a passenger on a rocky boat. On one hand, he would have to keep the ambitions of Prasad's family and his party men in check; on the other hand, he would have to keep the bureaucracy under control."
Kumar's supporters are confident that he will not let the "bahubalis" roam free. "He is a born tactician," a senior bureaucrat, who did not wish to be named, said. "He has done it before; he can do it again. In 2005, the situation was worse, but he brought the bahubalis into the mainstream and got their ill-gotten wealth circulating in the economy." More recently, the bureaucrat recounts how Kumar handled the situation when a dozen newly-elected lawmakers forcefully occupied government bungalows and put their nameplates on the gates. "He left the job to the RJD chief and his son Tejaswi Yadav, the deputy chief minister."
Kumar's critics say he will find it difficult to maintain this system for long. "It's okay for the short term, but for the long term the coalition needs to have a strategy," a senior political analyst said. "Prasad's family has high ambitions. Eldest daughter Misa Bharti wants to enter politics. Then there is the matter of 'sibling rivalry' between Tejaswi and Tej Pratap (Prasad's eldest son, a minister in Kumar's cabinet). As soon as the honeymoon period is over, all of them will try to steer the government according to their own wishes."
Kumar will also have to curb rampant corruption in the bureaucracy, say his critics. While citizens say that standards of living have improved in the last 10 years, in the same vein they add that corruption has become more pronounced during Kumar's rule.
The recent spike in cases of mob violence is another challenge for the chief minister. Last week, a case of hit-and-run in Lalganj area of Vaishali district acquired a communal tone. A station house officer was lynched by a mob and a 17-year-old boy was killed in the resulting police firing. The culprit in the hit-and-run case is allegedly a supporter of a local JD-U leader and the victims belong to the vote bank of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Earlier this month, parts of Patna witnessed violent protests and heavy police deployment after a student of a private school was allegedly raped by the son of the school's director. Calm was restored only after the city superintendent of police took charge of the case and the accused was arrested.
Providing jobs is another challenge. "There is no doubt that Kumar rebuilt the state," a senior journalist who covers Bihar said. "But he failed to create as many jobs as the people needed. With 17.1 per cent of Bihar's youth without a job, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country." To create more jobs, Kumar needs investment, which is scarcer in the current financial climate.
This apart, the central government is tightening its purse strings. The finance ministry has recently cut the Centre's share in centrally-sponsored schemes such as Integrated Child Development Services and Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan. This means states would have to spend more on these schemes. Kumar's announcement about banning the sale of liquor - the state earns Rs 4,000 crore as revenue under the excise head - will further deprive the state exchequer from next year.
Add to this, the state government's plan to launch an unemployment allowance from next year - one of the seven poll promises of the coalition - which will burden the state exchequer even more and result in a further cut in developmental expenditures.
In the run-up to the Assembly polls, the coalition had promised 100 per cent electrification of rural areas by the end of next year. Given the high cost of power, few in the bureaucracy believe this would be possible.
Clearly, it's not going to be smooth sailing. As a senior JD-U leader put it: "When I look at the challenges ahead of us, it seems like winning the Assembly election was the easier part. The real battle will start now and continue for the next five years. This term would be the toughest test of Kumar's political and tactical acumen. For the sake of the state, I would like him to emerge victorious."
Disclaimer: These are personal views of the writer. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of www.business-standard.com or the Business Standard newspaper
