All’s well, it is said, that ends well. This applies broadly, but not fully, to this year’s monsoon. As it begins to retreat from the northwest, it seems that the total rainfall during the four-month monsoon period (June to September) will be normal, notwithstanding initial hiccups and woefully deficient precipitation in the first half. This has not just dissipated the fear of a major drought like that of 2009, but has also helped refill emptied reservoirs and ponds that irrigate fields and generate hydropower in the post-monsoon period. However, the rains’ spread in space and time has been highly skewed, upsetting the kharif-sowing schedule due to scarcity of rain in June and July. The belated surge in rainfall has helped, but the ill-effects of delayed planting and early-season moisture stress seem to have endured — as reflected in the fact that kharif production is expected to be lower than last year’s record output. In addition, some parts of the country have remained rain-deficient, forcing farmers to leave land unseeded — particularly north-interior Karnataka, Marathwada, Saurashtra, Kutch and a few pockets in western Rajasthan.
The belated withdrawal of the monsoon, in late September instead of the beginning of September as is considered usual, is important to note. This has happened for the seventh time in a row; monsoons have withdrawn late every year since 2006. Can this be dismissed as coincidence? The possibility that it indicates an emerging, new norm, given how climate change has already begun to disturb long-standing weather patterns worldwide, must not be dismissed. The perceived “normal” schedule for the monsoon’s departure may no longer hold.
It is also true, of course, that the already dismal credibility of the official weather forecaster, the India Meteorological Department, or IMD, has been further dented this year. The IMD revised its rainfall projections thrice — and erred each time. After originally projecting total rainfall at 98 per cent of the normal amount, it progressively lowered it — to 96 per cent in end-June and then to below 90 per cent, even as low as 85 per cent, by the beginning of August. And a few days after the IMD dipped its forecast to its lowest level, the monsoon rebounded, as if with a vengeance. As a result, rainfall deficiency fell steadily from 31 per cent at end-June to around 20 per cent by end-July, 15 per cent by end-August and finally around five per cent by the end of the season. The final figure has turned out close to what the IMD prophesied as early as April— but it seems impossible to attribute this to anything other than blind chance. Ever since the collapse of the 16-parameter statistical regression model for monsoon prediction known as the Gowarikar model, which had accurately predicted the monsoon for 12 years from 1987, the IMD has struggled with its forecasts. It may, therefore, be worthwhile to try out outsourcing the monsoon prediction to newly emerging local weather forecasting companies or foreign weather bureaux.
