Shower of hope

Met dept cheers, but its track record has been patchy

The prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) of a normal and well-distributed rainfall in the second half of the monsoon season (August-September), almost similar to that in the first half, seems to have largely quelled the disquiet caused by other weather watchers by projecting sub-par monsoon rainfall this year. The markets have, predictably, reacted positively to the optimistic monsoon outlook. But the past accuracy record of the IMD’s long-range monsoon forecasts, issued normally in April every year, does not inspire much confidence. In the last 17 years since 2001, the weather office’s preliminary predictions have been on the mark