Since it does not take into account new abnormalities like the MJO, it is hardly surprising that the Met has got it wrong once again.
So finally, the Prime Minister is briefed about the monsoon and learns what we have known for some time: All is not well with the monsoon this year. This briefing on 13 July, besides being late by at least two weeks, is unlikely to have been a forthright one. The press release suggests that the Ministry of Agriculture is still in a denial mode and the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) continues to spread false cheer through misleading forecasts (more about this later).
I had pointed out that IMD’s predictions have been misdirected, grossly off the mark and extraordinarily inconsistent (‘Follies and IMD: Siamese Twins,’ BS, July 5, 2009). Nothing unusual in that, except this year, they have been compounded by administrative sleep-walking. The impending monsoon failure could result not only in imperilling those dependent on agriculture, but also cause withering of the green shoots of economic recovery.
After its flip-flops on the onset of monsoon and the estimate of season-long precipitation, IMD assured us that the rainfall in July would be 93 per cent of the average, and the monsoon having ‘advanced’ to Delhi a day ahead of the schedule, all would be well (except, of course, in the North-west). Half of July has passed. Even the media has recovered from its preoccupation with the less-than-remarkable Budget and has started realising that a drought would have a far greater impact on the economy than the Budget. IMD, in a belated acknowledgement of the obvious, says that as of 8 July, the rainfall was only 48 per cent of the average to date. But true to form, it says, never fear, the monsoon is soon reviving all over the north, albeit weakly. The cloud picture of the morning of 14 July suggests that this, too, is likely to meet the fate of its predecessors.
The highly respected forecasts of the US-based Centre for Ocean-Land-Atmospheric Studies (COLA) up to the third week of July show only very small patches of the country receiving more than 50 per cent of the average rain. A footnote: COLA’s forecasts for one week in advance have the greatest predictability. The longer forecasts are more uncertain. Actual weather events could be predicted on a cause-and-effect basis only three weeks in advance. The late Dr P R Pisharoty, India’s most eminent meteorologist and rightly considered to be its father, had observed that nature itself does not know what the weather is likely to be more than three weeks in advance.
To understand what is wrong with our monsoon predictions, we need a quick primer in how we receive rains. Shocking though it may be to learn, the south-west Monsoon, the term we use for the June-September rains, is mostly a misnomer. Rain-bearing clouds cover India from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The former move from the south-west to the north-east which is what gives the monsoon its name. These clouds, however, empty themselves out on the narrow coastal strip west of the Western Ghats and parts of Gujarat. They carry hardly any moisture for the vast inland areas. Most of the rain there comes from clouds off the Bay, moving westward across the peninsula and the Northern river plains.
The normal rain-bearing clouds generally result in pleasant, passing showers. The real soaking, the kind that fills the river catchments causing floods and inundation, which is the main source of all our water, comes from stronger disturbances and deeper depressions. The latter are readily identified in satellite pictures, since they appear as near vortices. The Arabian Sea is not given to too many depressions, with possibly two or three threatening the west coast every year at best, while the Hell’s Kitchen of the Bay cooks up not only the cyclonic storms of November to March, but also usually four or more deep depressions in the south-west monsoon period. They move as far as western Rajasthan, as happened in the flooding of Barmer in 2005. So perhaps we should rename the monsoon as Bengal monsoon (Mamatadi should give me a life-time rail pass!).
There have been only two depressions worth the name so far this year: One became the tropical storm Aila in late May and the other one from the Arabian Sea veered off the Gujarat coast three weeks ago. Neither brought any significant rains except to West Bengal for precisely 36 hours. As of July 14, there is not even a slight possibility of a depression in the Bay. So much for IMD’s forecast of monsoon revival!
My regular watch of the satellite images shows a steady eastward movement of clouds across the Bay, which is counter to the normal trend this time of the year. Hence, the truancy of the monsoon for all but the west coast. The most likely reason for this abnormality is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), first suggested by AccuWeather on June 2. MJO is, as yet, an unexplained phenomenon. Wikipedia says, “[It] is characterised by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean ... Each cycle lasts approximately 30-60 days.” That would seem to fit the pattern we have witnessed so far. Our monsoon has gone to China and points east! The IMD has not mentioned this serious possibility even in passing.
IMD may claim that this, being an unexplained phenomenon, does not enter its forecasting concerns. That would be wrong, because some other critical factors should have alerted it to look precisely for the unusual or unexplained. For one, the surface temperature of the Pacific in 2009 so far has been on the warmer side, suggesting that the influence of La Nina is waning and El Nino is increasing. This became most evident in early June. IMD first tried to say that this was irrelevant, but later came round to saying that the probability of the adverse impact of El Nino on the monsoon was 60 per cent. The same statement had tried to reassure us that the July rainfall would be 93 per cent of the average, followed by August at 101 per cent, and all would be well. What causes the IMD to ignore the reality staring it in the face and march steadily on (to doom?) is a mystery beyond mere mortals.
The sin of IMD’s omission is worse compounded by that of the policy makers’ by commission. The Ministry of Agriculture has repeatedly assured everyone from the PM on down that a drought-like situation does not exist. In mid-July, this is nothing short of wool-gathering. It fights a turf battle with the Ministry of Science and Technology regarding IMD’s forecasts. Reportedly, it is unhappy with the latter about its pessimistic forecast corrections. Given the reality, it ought to upset at the corrections not being sufficiently pessimistic!
It would be foolhardy now to deny that the spectre of drought looms over large parts of the country. Considerable damage is unavoidable, even if the next six weeks bring copious rains. Agriculture may contribute only 18 per cent of the GDP, but is still the source of livelihood for over half the population. This blasé attitude towards the most critical influence on agriculture speaks more eloquently of our priorities than all the hosannas for inclusive growth we have heard lately.
Ionesco had the last word on this situation: “You can only predict things after they have happened.”
