The Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) national spokesperson, Ravi Shankar Prasad, said on December 4 after a meeting of senior party leaders that "Much of the colour of this Parliament [session] would be determined by the outcome of the election counting". It appears that is coming to pass. The ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is clearly on the back foot after the Congress party was trounced in three of the five states that went to the polls, and lost narrowly in a fourth. An already weak government is looking even weaker, especially after the ill-advised remark by the president of the Congress, Sonia Gandhi, that a prime ministerial candidate would be announced shortly. Announcing this at the moment she did is naturally seen - perhaps correctly - as an attempt to shift blame for the debacle to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the government he leads. Under such circumstances, a free-for-all has begun in Parliament, with the ascendant BJP pushing its advantage - for example over the joint parliamentary committee report on 2G telecom assignments. Various other special interests, such as over Telangana, have joined in disrupting the usual business of Parliament - though, judging by this Lok Sabha, the usual business of Parliament has become disruption.
This comes at a time when a false calm prevails in terms of India's economic situation. The rupee appears to have stabilised, after four days of appreciation, at what Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram claims is its "true value", around 61 against the dollar. Mr Mayaram is likely mistaken - whether or not this is the rupee's "true value" will be revealed when the United States Federal Reserve begins its long-promised "taper". Meanwhile, the overall economy remains at the brink of a precipice. The Union government's fiscal deficit may well breach the finance minister's self-imposed "red line" of 4.8 per cent of gross domestic product unless steps are taken to revive investment, cut unnecessary spending and raise revenue. Longer-term reform has sat on Parliament's agenda for some considerable time - such as the insurance sector liberalisation Bill and the direct taxes code. These need to be passed forthwith to allow for more stable funds to flow into India in the former case, and to help rationalise government revenue flows in the latter case. They cannot be allowed to expire with the term of Parliament. Nor can they be allowed to wait on another political dispensation - especially since the differences between the two major national parties on the Bills are minuscule.
The BJP is indeed in the ascendant, and the Congress is in retreat. It is time for the BJP to look to the future. It has made its point that the UPA government has failed the country, a message that has clearly resonated with the electorate. It must now move forward and display more responsibility than it has in the past, and help expedite policymaking instead of obstructing it. The Congress no doubt sees the exit door in its future. It is in its own interest to set an example: it must go above and beyond the call of duty in reaching out to the Opposition. After all, it might well be shortly sitting on those same benches. But, most importantly, the Indian economy cannot afford stasis for six months, till a new government is sworn in.
