'Small-world' networks

The lack of random testing means we simply don't know about extent of community spread in India

When a pandemic like COVID-19 hits, policymakers must find the most efficient ways to allocate key resources like test kits, medicines, hospital beds, ventilators, etc. They also have to make guesses about the likely speed of propagation of the disease. This leads to decisions such as ordering shutdowns, and possible emergency fiscal and monetary measures.

Obviously, data is crucial and one of the problems is that governments routinely lie, even to themselves, when it comes to the magnitude of bad news. However, even though official data understates levels of infection and mortality rate, epidemiologists use an array of mathematical techniques