Chief Election Commissioner V S Sampath announced by-polls in three seats of Delhi on October 25. Krishna Nagar, Tughlaqabad and Mehrauli in Delhi will go for by-elections on November 25.
Chillingly, around the same time of the announcement, communal violence broke out in the Trilokpuri neighbourhood of the national capital.
This led to political parties inevitably trading charges on who had caused the riots and why. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) alleged that the riots were pre-planned and charged a former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) by name with conspiring to instigate them.
Without actually denying the accusation, the BJP said AAP was giving a "political colour" to the situation. The Congress accused AAP of being "hand-in-glove" with the BJP and RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) and criticised the local AAP MLA for being inactive in the Trilokpuri constituency.
Trilokpuri now lives cowering in the threat of more violence. And Trilokpuri tells us that in the absence of a clear decisive government in Delhi, more such incidents cannot be ruled out in the jockeying for power that is going on.
The story goes back to February, when Arvind Kejriwal, who was heading a minority government, resigned as chief minister, ostensibly after his government's unsuccessful bid to introduce the Delhi Jan Lokpal Bill. President's Rule was imposed in Delhi, after it became clear that no government could be formed. A large section of the BJP felt cheated out of a stab at political power. AAP brought together so many disparate elements that it was unable to offer a coherent political alternative. And the Congress itself realised that it had become the setting sun in Delhi.
Obviously, an indefinite spell of President's Rule was an untenable proposition. Now, after a spectacular performance in several states, the BJP is facing the AAP dilemma in Delhi - whether to form a minority government or go for fresh polls. Those who can see a new Assembly election on the horizon are determined to win it at any cost: even if the cost is communal violence.
In the last election, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 31 seats out of the 70-member Assembly. But its seat tally came down to 28, as three of its members were fighting the Lok Sabha elections. Hence, in the current setup, the BJP needs seven seats to get a majority in the Delhi Assembly. Its ally, the Akali Dal, has managed to win just one seat, so it needs six more seats. If the BJP manages to win all the three by-poll seats, it will inch closer towards a majority.
There are strategists in the BJP who believe the longer elections are delayed, the more AAP will dwindle. Meanwhile, it will have time to use various strategies to consolidate its strength. Incidents like the one in Trilokpuri, the BJP believes, will only polarise votes in its favour.
AAP needs an election badly. MLAs are getting restless. The party's internal calculations show that 28 per cent of the middle class people in Delhi had voted for the party in the 2013 Assembly elections, which declined to 22 per cent in the Lok Sabha polls held in 2014. "However, 8-10 per cent of the voters in Delhi were those who wanted Kejriwal in Delhi and (Narendra) Modi at the Centre. So, we hope some of these voters will come back to us," said Durgesh Pathak, who is heading the party's Delhi unit.
In the mean time, the Election Commission has announced three by-elections for the Assembly. These seats were vacated when those who had won the seats became Members of Parliament. All three were won by the BJP. So if the BJP loses even one, it will be that much further from forming a government in Delhi.
AAP's logic is that it has nothing to lose: it is the BJP that has the most at stake in these three seats. It cites the figures: in the Assembly elections held in Delhi last year, the AAP lost to BJP with narrow margins of 4,500 to 6,000 votes in Mehrauli and Tughlaqabad.
Delhi's fate will soon be decided by Lt Governor Najeeb Jung, who has time till November 11 to examine the possibility of government formation without holding fresh elections. This winter, all eyes will be set on what happens in Delhi, which will test the mettle of Kejriwal; and the fabric of communities that live cheek by jowl in the national capital.
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