India’s “demographic dividend” is much talked about. As Table 1 shows, there is a distinct youthward bulge in India’s age distribution, and as time goes by these young people are entering the workforce. However, as Table 2 shows, this is a geographically concentrated effect. The old BIMARU states – Bihar Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan in particular – have populations growing at well above the national average.
Worrying, these are also the states that are least able to provide basic infrastructure. True, their per capita growth has begun to catch up with the rest of the country, as Table 3 shows. However, that is not consumption-led. And it shows in recent census data that details how households live.
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Each of those states is shockingly deficient, comparatively, in some way. In Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, electric lighting is enormously scarce, as Table 4 shows. In Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, fewer people have pucca houses than is the national average, as demonstrated by Table 5. And Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh seem unable to give their families tap water, as illustrated by Table 6.
This inability to provide basic home infrastructure for growing children will, naturally, reflect on how they are able to perform once in the job market. What of education? Recent figures on school enrolment are warped by the government’s Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan project – which, however, does not focus on outcomes, only on inputs. And yet outcomes, as Table 7 shows, are deeply problematic. The Annual Survey of Education Report, 2011, discovered deep holes in education in the states with the fastest growing populations. Basic reading and arithmetic skills did not seem to be available. The demographic dividend can still turn into a demographic disaster.
