Subir Roy: Change lifestyle, not the climate

VALUE FOR MONEY

The battle against climate change in India has lately come to acquire three effective weapons. There is more compelling data to aid understanding and evolve cures, India has taken the first steps to evolve its own strategy, and wisdom is at hand to shape a national consensus.

First the data. Here are some of the findings of a recent study by Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network, which examined who are at greatest risk from two of the most obvious results of global warming""rising sea levels and more intensive cyclones. Seventy-five per cent of the people living in low-elevation (one to 10 metres) coastal zones are in Asia. More precisely, 247 million people in low-income countries live in these coastal zones. Ten countries with the largest number of people living in such zones are China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, the US, Thailand, and the Philippines.

We also have the latest report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change addressing the mitigation of the result of a rapidly rising tide of greenhouse gas emissions, up by 70 per cent during 1970 and 2004. The scientists who form the panel are in high agreement that there is much evidence of the following. With current global policies and practices, harmful emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades. There are still gaps in knowledge about mitigation, especially concerning developing countries, and so research must go on. But with every successive report the science gets more compelling as also the certainty attached to the findings.

Here is what we can do simply by changing our ways. The panel finds that changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns and management practices can contribute to mitigation across all sectors. What is striking is that the scientists are in substantial agreement that there is a lot of evidence that health benefits from lower air pollution as a result of actions to reduce emissions "can be substantial and can offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs".

A major cause of emissions is transport and that is where action must be concentrated. There is a lot that we can do via existing technologies and those that will become commercial over the next couple of decades but there is a danger. The mitigation effort can be counteracted by economic growth over the same period. Consumer preference and rising expectations in rapidly growing economies like India and China, where it is aspirational to own a car, underline the need to change preferences and evolve new policy frameworks. Another area of action is making existing and new homes and offices more energy-efficient. In the industrial sector, action must concentrate on the more energy-intensive industries but neither the developed nor the developing countries are using available mitigation options. And if we are looking for low-cost options, many of them lie in agriculture and forests, which can offer carbon sinks and biomass feedstock for energy use.

Second, an Indian strategy. On behalf of the government of India, The Energy Research Institute has outlined "A National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030". It creates a roadmap for increasing energy efficiency, which other than being a key mitigation exercise also enhances the country's energy security. On the basis of its assessment of existing technologies and those that are likely to become available within the given timeframe, the study finds that power from hydro, nuclear and renewable sources will be able to meet only 4.5 per cent of requirements. So emphasis must remain on coal, oil and gas.

It assesses three economic scenarios: low growth (6.7 per cent), business as usual (8 per cent), and high growth (10 per cent). Plus, it looks at the scope for greater use of renewable energy, nuclear power and greater energy efficiency measures across all sectors. It finds that by adopting all the foregoing measures, the economy can achieve BAU growth of 8 per cent by consuming only as much energy as it would have done under the low-growth scenario without those measures. Also, India can achieve the high-growth scenario (10 per cent) by consuming energy only at the BAU level if it adopts all those efficiencies.

Third, the wisdom. In outlining what needs to be done, R K Pachauri, who as head of TERI and chair of the IPCC is a leading global authority on climate change and its mitigation, points to the particular vulnerability of Indian agriculture. A new programme of adaptation to new processes for new climates has to be initiated. The elements for it have to be new crop strains suited to adverse conditions and better management of water. And there has to be an improved health infrastructure to withstand some of the adverse effects of climate change.

He is a great believer in using market forces to meet the challenge of mitigation. A proper carbon price will spur the development of new low-carbon technologies and actions that will be extremely useful in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A smart company like GE has already launched its eco imagination programme with a few billion dollars of funding to develop low-carbon technologies. This is because the company feels that tomorrow's market will be a low-carbon one.

He is clear that we in India will have to start doing things for our own domestic reasons. We cannot as a society of over a billion people ever think of embarking or continuing on a path of growth and development that emulates what the west and the developed world have done, because that is totally unsustainable. "We would probably have much more ethical and political strength if we did a few things which are good for us anyway and are also good for the global environment. Then we can tell the developed world you better get your house in order."

subir.roy@bsmail.in