The Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana, coming in the wake of the earlier parliamentary elections and the by-elections in between - plus the way the central government is being run - give us an idea of how the country is likely to be governed for the next five years or so. India may get to look a bit like China, getting strong and prosperous under a powerful leadership that brushes aside irritations such as concern over civil liberties and the environment.
First, the import of the Assembly election results. The near complete victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Maharashtra (just a bit short of absolute majority) and the complete victory (an absolute majority) in Haryana - accompanied by the rout of the Congress - is seen as a clear and huge mandate for the BJP. On the other hand, the share of the popular vote tells a more nuanced story. In Maharashtra, the BJP has secured a fractionally higher share of the popular vote - 27.8 per cent now compared to 27.3 per cent in April - and in Haryana a 1.5 percentage point fall (33.2 per cent now compared to 34.75 per cent in April) in the popular vote. Thus, thanks to India's first-past-the-post system, the BJP has a clear mandate to rule, though in April (31 per cent) and now in October just about a third of Indians actually voted for it.
The system enabled the Congress to rule India for most of the post-independence period without a majority of the citizens voting for it. This securing a mandate by stealth, so to speak, demoralised the opposition parties who chose the agitation route (the JP movement) and weakened the forces of democracy. Of India's Opposition, it used to be said, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely - an absolute lack of power also corrupts."
While the parliamentary and Assembly elections have produced similar results, the by-elections in between in Uttarakhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan produced very different outcomes, with a clear fall in the BJP's share of the popular vote as also the number of seats won. There were other significant differences, too. Narendra Modi did not campaign; state BJP units were left to do more or less as they pleased; and in high profile Uttar Pradesh a clear communal line of campaigning, with hate speeches and highlighting of "love jihad", was followed.
In contrast, the Assembly election campaigns were led by a ubiquitous Mr Modi; state BJP units were carefully supervised and directed by second-in-command Amit Shah who crafted the specific strategies; and the campaign theme was not anti-Muslim but developmental, as in the parliamentary elections. What is more, the campaigns were inclusive, seeking to garner the support of not just the Other Backward Classes but Dalits, too. Another similarity between Assembly and parliamentary elections is that the electorate voted out hugely corrupt and incompetent regimes that had been in power for very long.
Now, let us see how the Union government has been functioning. A Westminster-style Cabinet form of government is nominally in place - but, in reality, India is for the first time being ruled by an American-style presidential administration. There is an indisputable leader; there are rather few Cabinet ministers, many of whom hold multiple portfolios; and, what is most important, the ministers seldom open their mouths and are seen to have little power to take decisions on their own.
As a result of all this, we are likely to see a strong and decisive central government that will carry out reforms, and an emasculated ruling party that will play a distinct second fiddle. The professed political credo of the regime will be secular and inclusive - though it remains to be seen how purposefully the "Hindu Rashtra" agenda will be pursued by the Sangh Parivar below and above the radar.
What seems also clear is that Mr Modi is not wedded to any particular "ism" or ideology and will not let anything stand in the way - not even the Hindutva agenda - of his retaining and wielding effective power. The big question mark that hangs over this scenario is how he will take diverse state governments along with him, persuading and building a consensus, when it is in his nature to rule with a strong hand and brook no opposition.
While India needs a strong government and the banishment of traditional politicians, of whatever hue, there is uncertainty over the future of dissent, fundamental rights and the space for minorities such as adivasis, Dalits and Muslims. Under democracy, numerical minorities can be trampled upon. It will require an independent and courageous judiciary, as also a range of powerful institutions, to protect individual liberties. But judicial independence is not a given and institutions are weak.
subirkroy@gmail.com
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