I happened to be in Delhi last December at the time the Rajya Sabha was taking up the Juvenile Justice Bill 2015 for consideration. There was public uproar around a provision in the Bill that juveniles aged between 16 and 18, accused of heinous offences (for which there is a sentence of seven or more years under the Indian Penal Code) could be tried under adult laws. As most readers are aware, the Bill was in fact passed by the Rajya Sabha, despite having earlier been rejected by a Parliamentary Standing Committee. Emotions ran high as the discussion became entangled with the pending release of one of those convicted in the brutal 'Nirbhaya' gang-rape case of December 2012. He had been tried as a juvenile and was due to walk free after the prescribed period in a reform facility.
These debates came to my mind as I participated in a symposium on "Young People and the Future of Emerging Markets" at Oxford University last month. This was the seventh in a series called the Emerging Markets Symposium, organised under the auspices of Green Templeton College of the university1. I happen to be a member of the Steering Committee of the symposium, which concentrates on exploring solutions to human welfare problems of emerging markets.
The symposium series is animated by the belief that emerging markets do not always get the attention that they deserve from the international community despite the novelty and severity of the problems that they face. These countries also, however, possess the institutions and capabilities to evolve their own solutions, and there is a need for a space where these solutions can be shared and debated among scholars and practitioners. Participation is by invitation and discussion takes place under the Chatham House rule to ensure candour, although the discussion is summarised in a report published after the event, this year in May.
The discussion at this year's symposium was complicated by the lack of a consistent definition of what we mean by "young people". This in turn reflects the multiple, sometimes contradictory, public policy concerns associated with youth. At the most general level, this phase in life (from around the onset of puberty till marriage) is considered as critical in forming the capabilities, habits and behaviors of full adulthood. But, the onset of puberty is occurring at younger ages, whereas the age of marriage and parenthood is being deferred in response to longevity (and in rich countries, economic and financial stress) leading to an extended transition, sometimes called "waithood".
As one of the speakers noted, there are multiple and occasionally contradictory reasons why young people attract policy attention in emerging markets. Perhaps the most common motivation arises from demography. The differences in timing between reduced fertility and the rise in longevity leads to a one-time "youth bulge". This is the (temporary) source of the so-called "demographic dividend", and for this purpose it is the share of population of working age that gets attention. This is particularly relevant for India: Its relatively slow fertility transition means that its working age population will continue to grow till 2040, later than most other existing emerging markets. As India exits it will be followed by the countries of sub-Saharan Africa.
This focus on the young purely as "employment fodder" and investment in them as "human capital formation" came in for substantial criticism. It was seen as treating the young as objects rather than meritorious subjects with their specific aspirations, needs and wants. But, even within a more rounded social and emotional context, it was surprising how much ambivalence these societies hold toward the youth in their midst. As the debate on the Juvenile Justice Bill revealed, the guardians of society, themselves middle-aged or elderly, continue to have (and perhaps have always had) anxiety about the proclivity of youth, particularly male youth, toward radicalism and violence. This is coupled with uncertainty on the emotional readiness of youth to take on all aspects of adulthood: Voting; sexual consent; military service; consumption of intoxicants. These contradictions were on full display in the debate on the Bill.
On the more positive side, as a recent survey in The Economist2 pointed out, the millennials are "the brainiest, best-educated generation ever". So, an additional motive for focusing on youth is the energy, resourcefulness and creativity they bring to their societies. Yet, as The Economist tagline noted, it is their elders who often stop them from reaching their full potential. This observation perhaps largely reflects the current experience of the rich countries, particularly in Europe and Japan, which have labour market regulations which favour "insiders" over "outsiders" (i.e. those currently employed over those aspiring to "good jobs"). Underlying it is the wider political reality that in most democracies the young tend to be disengaged from formal politics than those older than them, and this is then reflected in political priorities.
Finally, returning to India, it is clear that India's youth bulge will be of a scale that is significant both domestically and globally. As pointed out in a recent working paper from NCAER3, there is work to be done to realise any possible economic demographic dividend, given the still poor nutritional and health status of this cohort; the poor learning outcomes from elementary education (despite undoubted success in raising primary school enrolment rates) and the extremely low level of female participation in the non-agricultural labour force. But, it is this cohort that will be our "baby boomers" who will influence society and politics for the next 30 years. The likes of Facebook and Google understand this well. Do our politicians?
The writer is chief economist, Shell.
These views are his own
1 The press release on the current conference, and reports on earlier conferences may be found at http://ems.gtc.ox.ac.uk/. which also provides details of countries considered emerging markets. I would like to acknowledge the support of Mihika Chatterjee of Green Templeton for her support on research which I have cited in this column.
2 "Generation Uphill'. January 23 2016
3 Sonalde Desai "Demographic Deposit, Dividend and Debt" NCAER Working paper 108. December 2014. New Delhi.
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