While oil imports continue to threaten to derail India's trade deficit, there are some compensating factors as well. For one, thanks to the large under-recoveries even after yesterday's price hikes, private refiners like Reliance will continue to export their petroleum products. In 2008-09, JP Morgan estimates petroleum exports from India will be around $43 bn as compared to the imports of $125bn. The other interesting point to keep in mind is that, despite what is said often, India's oil-intensity is coming down. JP Morgan calculates this by dividing real GDP by the number of million tonnes of petroleum products consumed (since both figures are real, this takes care of changes due to prices and exchange rates) "� after rising to around 0.53 in 2000, this fell to around 0.41 in 2007. This is a result of not just greater efficiency in the use of petroleum products but also due to the greater growth of the less oil-intensive services sector and its increased overall share in GDP. |
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