In my previous article I wrote that India should demand an ambitious climate-change deal, because we need the world to stay safe-below the guardrail of two degrees Celsius rise in temperature. I also said that for the deal to be effective, it is necessary to ensure that every country has the right to development, but within the planetary limits. In other words, we must operationalise equity because this would be a prerequisite for global cooperation on climate change.
But at times, a week can be a long time, even when it comes to international negotiations that have been stuck for 20 years. Last week, the United States and China signed a bilateral agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Western commentators have been ecstatic, lauding the deal as both historic and ambitious. With China in the bag, India is the target, already painted as the bad boy in climate change negotiations. The question on the minds of United States-based journalists and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) is: when will India agree to cut its emissions?
As I said, a week can be a long time in climate change negotiations. While the world has not been able to operationalise equity for the past 20 years, United States President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping did it at one stroke. They operationalised equity, but in a way that will take us all to a sure catastrophe.
How? My colleagues have done some number crunching on the United States-China deal. Under this agreement, the United States has agreed to take domestic actions so that it will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005 levels by 2025. China has agreed that it will peak its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and then start reducing them. It has also agreed to raise the share of non-fossil fuels to 20 per cent of its primary energy mix by 2030. Time for a loud hurrah? Not so fast.
First, what this means is that the United States and China have agreed to "equalise" their emissions by 2030. Both countries would have "equal" per capita emissions in 2030. The United States would come down marginally from its current 18 tonnes per capita and China would increase from its current seven-eight tonnes. Both the polluters would converge at 12-14 tonnes a person a year. This is when the planet can effectively absorb and naturally cleanse emissions not more than two tonnes a person a year.
In fact, the cake is carved up in such a manner that each country would occupy equal atmospheric space by 2030. We know that countries have a cumulative share of emissions in the atmosphere. The United States-China deal makes it clear that both the countries individually get 16 per cent of the atmospheric space by 2030.
The problem is that the occupier gets it all. This deal has defined equity as good for the United States and China, but bad for the planet. At this level of emissions, the world will definitely cross the two degrees Celsius mark and go towards four-five degrees Celsius, unless India, Brazil, South Africa and all the rest of the emerging world stop their emissions right now. There is no space for the rest of the world after this deal.
This is now the next move. In the well-orchestrated media and NGO campaign, pressure is being put on India and the rest to forego their right to development. They must act, says the pack. The United States and China together have shown the way.
So what should India do? Going by the United States-China deal, India needs to do nothing. Its current per capita emissions are 1.8 tonnes and by 2030, under the business-as-usual scenario, it will be four tonnes - nowhere close to that of the United States and China. Between 2011 and 2030, China will take over 25 per cent of the remaining carbon space; the United States will occupy 11 per cent more and India only seven per cent more. So unless the Indian government wants to tell its people that they are second-class citizens of the world, it should really start occupying more. In other words, after the United States-China agreement, India should be accelerating its growth so that it can catch up.
Clearly, this is not what we should do as it is not in our interest to blow up the world. But equally (and this is really difficult to explain to the United States-based media and NGOs) it is not in our interest to believe that the United States-China deal is good for the world. It sets the world on a dangerous path where all countries will want their right to pollute. It is in our interest to demand that the United States and China must reduce emissions at the scale and pace needed to provide for the world to stay below the danger mark. It is in our interest to demand that we will all accept limits, but based on equity.
P S: I say this with great sadness but I know that my words will not be read or understood by the many United States-based journalists who have been calling to ask why India is not as "responsible" as the United States and China.
The writer is at the Centre for Science and Environment
sunita@cseindia.org
Twitter: @sunitanar
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