It was generally assumed just a few weeks ago that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would settle into a stalemate. After being beaten at the Battle of Kiev, the Russian army had withdrawn from northwestern Ukraine; fighting remained intense in the southeast, as Moscow sought to bring all of Luhansk and Donetsk districts under its control, but over the remainder of the long front line the two armies were expected to entrench themselves. Some began to talk about “frozen conflicts”, such as between Armenia and Azerbaijan — where for years there is no movement on a frontline, normal business resumes
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