While cereal growth is slackening, horticulture will grow at 15-20 per cent in the next 10-15 years.
While the nearly four-fold spurt in the foodgrain output since 1950 has hogged much attention — being hailed as the green revolution — the over seven-fold step-up in horticultural output in the same period has gone largely unsung. Increased availability of horticultural products has led to significant changes in dietary patterns as reflected in the decrease in per capita intake of cereals and a simultaneous increase in the consumption of fruits and vegetables, apart from, livestock products like milk, meat and eggs.
Also, while the cereals-based green revolution has recently displayed signs of fatigue, with growth rates tending to slacken, the horticulture-based ‘golden revolution’ has continued to flourish, even indicating a further increase in the years to come. No wonder then that horticulture’s share in the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) has risen to over 29 per cent while only about 10 per cent of farm land is under these crops.
The prospects of an acceleration in horticultural growth are real, feels H P Singh, deputy director-general (horticulture), Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). The country’s total horticultural production in 2007-08 was an estimated 185.2 million tonnes.
“It can be raised to 300 million tonnes by 2011-12, and to 360 million tonnes, almost double of the present level, by 2020-21 — at an average growth rate of 9 per cent. This is the target set for this sector,” says Singh.
His optimism is based partly on the perceptible uptrend in the area under horticultural crops, especially since 2002-03, and partly on the availability of better crop varieties and improved cultivation technology. Besides, a substantial increase in horticultural production is possible by bridging the gap in crop yields in the horticulturally-progressive and laggard regions. Of course, several constraints will have to be removed to create a proper environment for Indian horticulture to flourish, he maintains.
The expansion, that has taken place since 2003, in the area under fruit crops will soon show in a production surge, as fruit trees normally take five to seven years to commence commercial production.
Productivity of some fruits, notably grapes and banana, in India is the highest in the world. But, within the country, there is considerable yield variation. For instance, in banana, productivity levels of 50 to 60 tonnes a hectare are fairly common in Maharashtra and Gujarat. But yields in Kerala are merely nine to 10 tonnes a hectare. Bridging, or even reducing this disparity would, obviously, lead to a big jump in banana output.
In the past, paucity of good seeding material has been a formidable hurdle in optimising horticultural harvest. This shortage has been partly mitigated thanks to a massive national seeds project. The production and, hence, availability, of seeds and planting material of horticultural plants has grown nearly five times in the past three years. This will lend an impetus to horticultural growth.
However, there are new challenges as well. Global warming and consequential climate changes may impact the horticulture sector in a significant manner. Temperate (cold season) fruits and vegetables may face most of the brunt. However, this challenge can be met though judicious research and development strategies.
In potato, a temperate crop, new varieties have already been developed that can thrive even under sub-temperate conditions. In grapes, an important temperate fruit crop, the plant’s architecture can be suitably altered to enable it to withstand climate change.
In fact, the architecture of the guava plant has already been modified and it has enhanced its yield from around eight tonnes to 30-35 tonnes a hectare. The altered plants have a reduced size but strategically-angled branches help to tap extra sunlight and bear more fruits. This has also facilitated the accommodation of more guava trees per hectare with a resultant larger harvest. Such varieties have already been introduced for commercial cultivation in Maharashtra. The Lucknow-based Central Institute of Sub-tropical Horticulture (CISH) is producing planting material of such varieties.
The next phase of the horticultural revolution will be driven by technology and will be aided by value-addition. What is needed is to have in place the right kind of developmental strategies that are knowledge-based, technology-driven and farmer-centric, besides facilitating remunerative returns for growers.
At the same time, however, supportive infrastructure, in the form of storage, cold chains, logistic support and supply chains, will have to be expanded and strengthened to realise the growth potential.
