Surinder Sud: Ready to take the heat

FARM VIEW

The ICAR appears to be ready to face global warming and has got together universities to collaborate on critical research.

As more and more evidence of global warming and climate change gets in, it is becoming clear that agriculture will be affected in a significant manner from it. What is of special interest to India is that the south Asian region is foreseen to be the worst hit due to the predominance of agriculture and limited resources in the countries in this zone. Indian agriculture is also slated to undergo major changes many of which may be difficult to clearly envisage at this stage. However, there are some impacts that can be visualised to take pre-emptive action to cope with them.

The United Nation's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has been awarded the Nobel peace prize, has already projected that the rise in temperature by the end of this century could be in the range of 2 to 4.5 degrees Celsius. As a result, the Himalayan glaciers and snow cover will contract and rainfall pattern will change. This will lead to between a 0.18 and 0.59 metre rise in sea level, submerging several coastal areas under the ocean.

India-specific studies carried out by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, also point to significant changes in the monsoon rainfall and temperature in different parts of the country. They predict 15 to 40 per cent increase in rainfall in India by the end of the 21st century. The mean annual temperature is anticipated to rise by 3 to 6 degrees Celsius.

According to these studies, warming will be more pronounced in northern India than elsewhere. Also, winters and post-monsoon seasons will be relatively warmer. All these changes will, doubtlessly, alter the agro-climatic conditions for crop farming as well as livestock rearing.

Fortunately, Indian agricultural scientists are unlikely to be caught off-guard as they have already begun preparing themselves to cope with the emerging challenges. For this purpose, a national conference on climate change and Indian agriculture was organised by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) in Delhi last week. The focus of this meet was on prioritising research and development strategies and preparing an action plan to combat climate change.

As pointed out in the conference, climate change is likely to have some positive, but largely adverse, effect on crop production, necessitating major changes in agronomic practices. The positive effect may be due to the increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide content which will improve photosynthesis (conversion of solar energy into economic produce) in certain crops and boost their productivity and production.

But, at the same time, the accompanying increase in temperature can reduce crop duration (a production damping factor), increase crop respiration rates (pushing up water requirement) and alter the profile of pests and diseases. This, in turn, can disturb equilibrium between crops and pests and hasten nutrient mineralisation in soil, leading to higher losses of plant nutrients and lower fertiliser-use efficiency.

Also, changes in temperature and sea level can affect fisheries directly and indirectly through the possible modifications in fish species and available feed. Where other livestock are concerned, higher temperature and changed fodder and water scenario can influence the production of meat, milk and poultry products.

But, on the plus side, the action plan prepared by the ICAR for facing climate change seems reassuring, especially because some of the activities have already begun. A Network Project on climate change, involving some 15 research institutes and state agricultural universities, has been launched for critical research on crops, livestock and fisheries. More organisations are proposed to be roped in to further expand the ambit of its research programmes.

Besides, climate change has been identified as a thrust area for research under the new National Agriculture Innovation Project (NAIP) which has replaced the World Bank-supported National Agricultural Technology Project (NATP) on its completion.

This apart, workshops are proposed to be organised shortly under this action plan for capacity building in carbon trading and other related areas. A multi-disciplinary expert group is also proposed to be constituted for developing short-term and long-term programmes for combating climate change during the 11th Plan and subsequent period.

Obviously, if such an elaborate action plan, together with some other ideas generated at this national meet, succeed in meeting their objectives, India may not only manage to remain unscathed from climate change but even convert this into an opportunity to gain from it.