Surinder Sud: What food crisis?

If yields across states can be hiked to levels already achieved within the state, as they can with extension services, wheat output can rise by 40%.

India is in a position to increase production of wheat by over 30 million tonnes, or around 40 per cent, and double paddy production while using both current levels of technology and well tried out agronomic practices. This can be done by bridging the existing gap in the actual crop yields and the potential yields, within any state, or by narrowing them down substantially. Narrowing the yield gap across states will increase production levels a lot more, but this article is not talking about that.

This has been shown by various studies based on the data recorded in 2003-04 and 2004-05 on yields realised with improved agronomic practices and the existing actual average yields in different states. The results have been quoted by the National Development Council's sub-committee on agriculture and related issues in its report presented to the Planning Commission in May 2007. The Annual Report (2007-08) of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) also points to the available exploitable production potential that can be gainfully harnessed to boost overall grain availability. 
 

GROUND REALITY Potential increase in production if yields within state rise to best within that state (Yield in tonnes per hectare, 2002-03 to 2004-05)
WHEAT
State	Improved  Practice	Actual  2003-04	Yield Gap		Area  (mn ha)	Possible additional  production (mn tonne)
			%	tonnes/ha
Uttar Pradesh	4.20	2.79	50.50	1.41	9.00	12.69
Bihar	3.65	1.78	104.80	1.87	2.03	3.79
Punjab	4.46	4.20	6.10	0.26	3.48	0.90
Haryana	4.75	3.96	19.80	0.79	2.32	1.83
Rajasthan	3.94	2.79	41.30	1.15	2.01	2.31
Gujarat	4.03	2.68	50.50	1.35	0.73	0.98
Madhya Pradesh	3.29	1.78	84.30	1.51	4.14	6.25
Maharashtra	3.41	1.33	155.50	2.08	0.76	1.58
Himachal Pradesh	2.61	1.38	89.60	1.23	0.36	0.44
West Bengal	2.76	2.31	19.40	0.45	0.40	0.18
Uttarakhand	3.38	1.87	80.50	1.51	0.39	0.58
Total						31.53

In the case of wheat, the crop in news in recent years, the productivity in Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan is already very high, around 3.5 to 4.5 tonnes a hectare, which is comparable to China's 4.25 tonnes and better than that in the US (2.9 tonnes) and Australia (1.64 tonnes). Yet, there is room for further increase in wheat production in this belt because the actual average yield of the region as a whole still falls short of the obtainable level by around 1.7 tonnes a hectare. 
 

RICE
State	Improved  Practice	Actual  2003-04	Yield  Gap %
a) Rainfed (upland) rice
Chhattisgarh	3.74	1.45	157.00
Jharkhand	2.29	1.69	35.20
Manipur	4.27
Uttar Pradesh	3.62	1.94	86.40
b) Rainfed (shallow lowland)/Boro Rice
Assam	4.52	1.53	194.70
Chhattisgarh	3.55	1.45	144.20
Jharkhand	3.48	1.69	105.30
Tripura	1.36
Uttar Pradesh	3.65	2.18	67.20
c) Irrigated rice
Chhattisgarh	3.91	1.45	169.40
Bihar	4.88	1.51	222.10
Gujarat	5.58	1.89	195.30
J&K	7.48	1.94	285.80
Uttar Pradesh	7.05	2.18	222.40
Uttaranchal	3.85	1.94	98.20

Indeed, the differences in the present average wheat yields and those that can be had with improved practices vary from 6 per cent in Punjab to a whopping 50 per cent in UP, the state with the largest area under this crop in the country. UP alone, with 9 million hectares under wheat, can add over 12 million tonnes to the country's total wheat output. In Haryana, the wheat output can be pushed up by about 20 per cent and in Rajasthan, by over 40 per cent.

In areas outside this key wheat bowl, the scope for production surge is, in fact, several times higher. In Madhya Pradesh, the state having the second largest area under wheat (over 4 million hectares), wheat productivity can be pushed up by over 84 per cent. Elsewhere, it can be enhanced by 100 per cent (Bihar) and much more (155 per cent in Maharashtra) through better farm practices.

Thus, Madhya Pradesh can swell the country's wheat kitty by over 6 million tonnes, Bihar by another 3.8 million tonnes and Maharashtra by an additional 1.5 million tonnes. These three states together can provide over 11 million tonnes of additional wheat.

In the case of rice, the range of variation in the productivity is far wider than that in wheat because rice is grown under more diverse agro-climatic conditions. Cultivation practices, crop varieties and other production technology vary widely for different eco-systems as also for rainfed uplands, rainfed lowlands and irrigated fields. Only about 56 per cent of the total paddy acreage in the country has assured irrigation facilities.

The difference in the actual and obtainable yields, therefore, ranges from 35 per cent in the rainfed (upland) fields in Jharkhand to a whopping 222 per cent in the irrigated tracts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which together account for over 20 per cent of the country's total paddy acreage. These two states together can throw up additional 25 to 30 million tonnes of rice every year.

Significantly, the comparative yield statistics indicate that the opportunities for scaling up rice production are the maximum in the irrigated areas of most paddy-growing states, barring Punjab and Haryana, where productivity is already quite high. While the average paddy production can be increased by nearly 170 per cent in the irrigated areas of Chhattisgarh, it can be catapulted by 195 per cent in the irrigated tracts of Gujarat.

In the case of rainfed paddy grown on elevated lands where the rainwater water does not stay in the fields for long, improved agronomic practices can help push up per-hectare yields by over 86 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and 157 per cent in Chhattisgarh.

Similarly, in paddy grown on shallow lowlands and also the "boro paddy" planted in north-eastern states, including West Bengal and Assam, crop productivity can be more than doubled in most places with better farming methods. The yield gap is about 195 per cent in Assam, 144 per cent in Chhattisgarh and 105 per cent in Jharkhand. In Uttar Pradesh, where some lowland unirrigated areas are planted with paddy, especially in the eastern region, the per-hectare crop output can be stepped up by 67 per cent.

The above analysis is confined to the prospects of boosting the output of wheat and rice by merely bridging the gulf between high and low yields within each state. However, if productivity levels in the laggard states can be brought at par with or closer to those prevailing in Punjab and Haryana, the gains can, obviously, be far higher.

But for that, several factors that have kept the crop productivity low in the agriculturally backward areas would have to be addressed. Though these constraints vary widely across states and regions, many of them are common almost throughout the country. Significant among them are the collapse of the state extension agencies resulting in poor technology dispersal, improper choice of crop varieties and non-renewal of their seeds at short intervals, inadequate use of manures, inefficient and imbalanced application of fertilisers, and poor water management.

Many of these lacunae can automatically get removed if extension services are revamped and supportive infrastructure and services are strengthened and rendered more efficient. However, for some odd reason, most strategies employed recently for alleviating farmers' distress and boosting the country's food security focus on credit alone. But credit availability alone is unlikely to make a difference unless other needed measures are also taken simultaneously.