Surjit S Bhalla: Dolphins, smelly fish & the red herring

CALLING THE BLUFF/ Election 2004 proved, again, that the Indian voter always gets it 'right'

We have just witnessed history. By any criteria, the NDA defeat was a stunning upset. No one predicted it, or even came close, not even the dreamers within the Congress party.

But that is what defines an upset; to get at a parallel, there are only three elections in the last 55 years that approximate what India has just experienced "" Albert Fujimori in Peru in 1990, and Winston Churchill (UK) and Harry Truman (US) in 1948. Surely, such a verdict calls for an analysis. Herewith, an attempt at identifying the winners, and losers.

Dolphin # 1: The Indian voter, and particularly the people of Gujarat. By ensuring the worst BJP performance in the state in the last 25 years, the voter, both Hindu and Muslim, ensured that there was, is, electoral justice.

Several of us had felt that this verdict would come in the Gujarat Assembly elections of 2002, but justice was delayed, most likely because of fear, intimidation, and worse. There cannot be a more satisfying election verdict.

Dolphin # 2: Sonia Gandhi. Deemed not eligible to be PM on the grounds that she was a naturalised Indian, (a point of view shared by me), Ms Gandhi courageously battled on, faced criticism and worse, and won where it mattered most "" at the ballot box.

She now has the legal, electoral, and moral right to be the PM. And by pulling off one of the most stunning upsets in world electoral history, she and her team deserve accolades which only start at brilliant.

Dolphin # 3: India (Shining). While several commentators use this term as a form of contempt for the coiners of the phrase, the BJP, do not count me amongst them. India Shining has very little to do with the performance of any political party, or individual, though several (Mr Manmohan Singh and Mr Vajpayee) have hastened the historical process.

India Shining is about the transformation of India from a predominantly poor, illiterate, and closed economy to a literate, not so poor, vibrant, open, dynamic society, and one just beginning to find its place on the world stage.

The shining has just begun, and India's two decades have only just started. The train has left the station and there is really nothing any individual or party can do to even slow it down.

Dolphin # 4: NDTV. For providing election coverage that matched, if not excelled, the best of such coverage worldwide: for example, UK and the US. This comment is not an opinion "" it is a fact based on close observation of TV coverage of elections since they started in the 1960s. (Yes, I am an election junkie and that old!).

The distance between it and several other channels is disturbing for someone who believes in the power of competition. A pointer about this excellence "" NDTV had no politicians (until after the results), just experts discussing the election expertly. I found two NDTV "observations" as genius (defined as something that appears obvious after it is told).

First, that the person who made the NDA decision to ally with Jayalalithaa needed to get his head examined, and worse (this observation made before any results got announced); and second, that this national election should be viewed as a series of state elections, that is, local issues, including anti-incumbency, dominated what might have seemed to be a national election.

Smelly Fish # 1: The Indian voter. For electing two individuals (one with a 2-lakh majority) implicated in the 1984 Sikh riots and only narrowly defeating the third. Extrapolating, it is as if the Muslims and Hindus 20 years hence vote en masse to re-elect Modi. It just does not make sense, morally or strategically to either have fielded the candidates or voting them in. But hey "" the Congress party, which fielded these candidates, is not complaining.

Smelly Fish # 2: Opinion and exit polls and the satta market. The whole class failed, including non-poll experts and politicians. It is almost OK to get an opinion poll wrong, but to get exit polls so gloriously wrong is inexplicable. (Kudos again to NDTV for getting it least wrong!).

Admittedly, among all democratic countries, India is the most difficult to forecast. Either Indians lie a lot, or our election models are wrong. Perhaps both. Something pollsters and the bettors need to incorporate.

Smelly Fish # 3: Voters vote according to their pocketbook. The Indian voter apparently does not vote her pocketbook. (Or maybe she does but electoral math is confounding.) Vajpayee's tenure should have been appreciated and more of the same "" faster growth, lower inflation "" been asked for.

The Red Herring: Look what happened to Chandrababu Naidu. Mandate was against reforms which only benefited the urban elite. It is surprising to see how many otherwise ostensibly knowledgeable people have made this intellectually lazy, and therefore wrong, deduction. The mark of an unlazy intellectual is that she makes it difficult to be proven wrong.

The above argument is wrong simply because of its implication that urban areas would favour the NDA "" they did not. Urbanites voted against Naidu in Andhra Pradesh; most urban areas of India voted for Congress; Delhi (perhaps because of the three "Sikh riot" candidates) gained 6 out of 7 seats in BJP's backyard. Ms Jayalalithaa, who managed to win zero seats in Tamil Nadu, actually did so with an increase in her vote share of 4 per cent!

The arena of Congress's biggest victory "" Andhra Pradesh "" was against a backdrop of a negative swing of 1.2 per cent! Despite the involvement of Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi in "pro-poor" campaigning, the Congress's vote share in UP declined by 1.4 per cent.

Laloo Prasad's party, the poster boy of one who is in touch with the poor, unwashed masses, lost 6 per cent of the vote but managed to nearly quadruple its seats "" from 5 to 19. How was this a vote for a "new" kind of reform?

So what happened? I can only offer two and a half reasons, but these may account for almost the entire explanation. First, the electoral math of alliances is all important and all interpretations of "what happened" must first genuflect at it's altar. The above vote share changes are an example of how horribly wrong the chatterati can go on their misguided calculus.

The horrible NDA decision in Tamil Nadu accounted for a negative swing of 26 seats, and a positive swing of 37 seats for the Congress alliance.

Second, this election was not a national election but a state election where the universal impulse in each state was to "throw the bastards out" regardless of the colour of their sari. Third, and related to the second, there might be an element of "revolution of rising expectations" recently emphasised by Sanjaya Baru.

Regardless of what happened and who was the least wrong, Election 2004 proved two old truths: no matter what happens, the Indian voter always gets "good" results "" and, second, there is never a dull moment in India. Even more reason why India is truly shining.

ssbhalla@oxusresearch.com