| Surjit S Bhalla: Middle class and democracy - I |
| Surjit S Bhalla / May 14, 2009, 0:09 IST |
The surprise in this election is that one of the two major parties will reach past 170 seats - my bet is that it is the Congress.
In a justly celebrated phrase, Barrington Moore declared “No bourgeoisie — no democracy”. Translating, he meant that an essential characteristic of the middle class is its demand for democracy. Political scientists have enjoyed discussing the mystery of India — a poor country, yet a successful democracy. That was then. Today, 62 years after independence, India is a full-fledged democracy, and one with close to 40 per cent of its population as middle class.* (My definition of the middle class is applicable to all societies, across time — it is the poverty line in Western countries, which in today’s prices, is roughly 10 PPP dollars per person a day or around Rs 90. For a family of five, this translates into Rs 1.65 lakh a year.) Further, if one adds the aspiring middle class of around 10 to 20 per cent (at least), a reasonable case can be made that the middle class is about to assert itself — perhaps even today. In a two-part article (with the final part to be published on May 16th, on the edit page, that is, on counting day), I want to discuss the consequences of this phenomenon.
What does the middle class want, and not want? It wants affirmative action, not reservations. It believes in merit, provided there is equal opportunity. It considers glorification of poverty (as often done by political parties in India) as the antithesis of leadership. It is revolted by Indian leaders, for political purposes, consistently viewing India and its citizenry, and its poor, as unchanged from 40 years ago. For example, we still have the same poverty line as formulated in 1973. Isn’t it time that the poverty line is raised to conform to a newer richer, and considerably less poor, India?
The middle class believes in a level playing field and doesn’t mind if the end is unequal. It considers studies of inequality as the economics of envy, but strongly believes in as close as possible equal starts in life. And not least, perhaps out of self-interest, perhaps out of value structure, it considers the nexus between politicians and industrialists and the bureaucracy as the major bottleneck for economic development. Consequently, it believes in transparency, accountability, and considerably enhanced governance (and correspondingly less corruption). (Perhaps a cliché, but it is an easy call that Obama was the middle class choice, a universal middle class representative). The middle class demands have implications.
This election has already seen several middle-class firsts: The entry of professionals, as independents, in the election battle. It does not matter whether they win or not. They have made a statement to the major political parties — unless you reform, there will be consequences. Look at the manifestos of Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu. Both talk about radical change in the traditional “in the name of the poor” programmes of government subsidies. As is more than well known, these programmes are designed for maximum leakage, designed to benefit anybody but the poor. A major characteristic of such programmes is the violin play — they are meant to really help the poor, but end up really really helping the political and bureaucratic elite (and their middle henchmen) which administers these programmes. One Kafkaesque example is the Indian food subsidies programme. Rather than have straight cash transfers, or food stamps (a pilot programme in this regard was rejected three years ago by none other than the West Bengal CPM!) we have an elaborate mechanism to feed the non-poor.
As articulated by middle class leaders (also known as reformers) like Chandrababu and Nitish, this elaborate food subsidy programme is to be replaced by a cash transfer scheme for the poor. The money does not go to a person, it goes to a bank account. And the account is in the name of the head woman of the household. In days to come, look for this scheme to be expanded in scope and regions. Children will need to be sent to school, kids will have to be vaccinated. The past for some countries is the present and future of India. The middle class does not believe it has to always invent the wheel, or persist with the bullock cart, as is the fashion of our leaders. It will accept good ideas, as long as they entail transparency, and accountability. The Right to Information Act represents the beliefs of the middle class, as do Nitish-Chandrababu cash transfers. The food for work programme represents the old order of corruption and lack of transparency — and the “communist” view that all the poor do is waste money on alcohol so we need to give them money in an extremely roundabout way — so roundabout that the poor never see the money. Rajiv Gandhi, an astute observer, noted 25 years ago that these in the name of the poor schemes yielded only 15 paise of transfers from every rupee. While astute, and far-sighted, Rajiv Gandhi was also a wide-eyed optimist. The actual amount reaching the poor is less than 15 per cent, often around 10 per cent.
| ELECTIONS 2009 — CONGRESS AHEAD | |||
| State |
Number of | ||
Congress
2004
2009
What about refrains that the middle class is useless because it does not vote. Given that the middle class as a per cent of the population has increased from about 2 per cent of the population to 40 per cent today, and that the turnout ratio has stayed broadly constant, it is a bit hard to swallow the logic of Pappu not voting. South Mumbai is another story, and one that could, should, bring about reform in the administration of elections. Why not hold elections on Sundays, as done in Germany? Why do we have to give a special holiday to vote? Something for the Election Commission (EC) to consider. While on that subject, is it just me or do other people also believe that the EC has gone out of control. Banning exit polls (how can they matter so much if everyone believes they are wrong!) and worse, banning release of official government data like the Consumer Price Index are indications that the EC is overstepping its bounds, and way overstepping its welcome.
There are even more profound implications about the rise of the middle class. It is the middle class that believes in unity in diversity. Translated into realpolitik, this means that we might very well be witnessing the beginning of the end of regional politics. Such parti
